Crypto prediction markets are actively pricing the likelihood of Donald Trump visiting China in 2025, reflecting evolving geopolitical sentiment and the growing utility of these platforms.

Executive Summary

Prediction markets are currently evaluating the probability of Donald Trump visiting China in 2025, driven by diplomatic signals and media reports. This activity underscores the increasing role of decentralized finance in pricing real-world geopolitical events.

The Event in Detail

Crypto prediction markets are providing odds on whether Donald Trump will visit China before the end of 2025. On Myriad Markets, traders are split with approximately a 48% chance of the former president setting foot on mainland China by December 31, 2025. This contract specifically excludes airspace overflights or stopovers in Hong Kong or Taiwan, resolving based on official White House releases or AP/Reuters reporting. Polymarket lists a broader "Trump travel in 2025" market, with China among top destinations, indicating a 52% "yes" probability. Kalshi, a regulated U.S. event-futures exchange, focuses on whether Trump will meet Xi Jinping this year, with users currently pricing a 73% chance. Reports from Reuters and the Wall Street Journal citing a Beijing invitation to Trump, alongside ongoing TikTok negotiations, are influencing these market probabilities.

Market Implications

This speculative activity highlights the expanding intersection of real-world politics and decentralized finance. Prediction markets serve as a tool for pricing binary geopolitical events and acting as sentiment barometers. The total value of the Web3 prediction market ecosystem surged from $4.43 billion in 2024 to $6.11 billion in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.8%. Platforms like Polymarket have seen significant growth, with monthly trading volumes increasing from $50 million in early 2024 to $2.6 billion by late 2024. This growth is attracting substantial capital, with over $216 million raised across 11 deals in 2025, tripling the $80 million raised in 2024.

Broader Context

The rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi reflects their evolving role from speculative tools to infrastructure for aggregating collective intelligence. These platforms have demonstrated faster and more accurate predictive capabilities compared to traditional polls, particularly during events like the 2024 U.S. election. Regulatory advancements are also shaping the landscape; Kalshi operates with CFTC approval across 50 U.S. states, and Polymarket has acquired QCX, a Florida-based derivatives exchange, to gain a regulated entity for U.S. contract trading. Product innovation includes embedding prediction scenarios into social media via projects like Myriad and Flipr, allowing direct bets on platforms such as X. Furthermore, partnerships are expanding, with Polymarket becoming an official prediction partner of X and Kalshi teaming with Robinhood. The transparency of blockchain-based markets, allowing users to place bets with real money without intermediaries and ensuring immutable transaction records, contributes to their appeal as a quantitative expression of collective wisdom. Limitless, a prediction market on the Base chain, completed a $4 million strategic financing round in July 2025 and has accumulated a trading volume of approximately $299 million.