Bitcoin Nears Critical $108,000 Support Amid Bearish Signals and Macroeconomic Shifts

Executive Summary

Bitcoin is currently navigating an aggressive uptrend defined by two distinct trendlines. The digital asset is approaching a critical support level at $108,000, the breach of which would signal the cessation of the strong uptrend and could lead to a significant market correction. This threshold also represents a re-entry into a previous price range, historically indicative of buyer weakness. Concurrently, comparisons with past halving cycles suggest the current bullish phase may be concluding around September–October.

The Event in Detail

Bitcoin's recent price action has been characterized by an aggressive uptrend, guided by two identifiable trendlines on technical charts. These lines have maintained the momentum of the rally. However, a breakdown below these trendlines would indicate the conclusion of the strong bullish phase, potentially transitioning the market into a sideways or bearish environment. The market has observed price movements within 15% ranges, with re-entry into prior price ranges historically not correlating with bullish signals for Bitcoin. Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin has broken below a rising wedge, a bearish formation. The cryptocurrency's 2025 structure shows parallels with the 2021 bearish reversal, with BTC currently positioned just below a similar distribution zone. If this fractal pattern holds, a similar rejection could occur.

Market Implications

Loss of the $108,000 support level carries significant implications, as it would break multiple bullish indicators and align with the timing of previous Bitcoin cycles. Such a development could lead to a decline towards the $60,000–$62,000 zone, which coincides with the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). Some analysts further project a potential drop towards $50,000. Should Bitcoin close the month below $108,000 and enter Q4 under this level, its bullish structure would be compromised, potentially leading to a drop to $96,000. A failure to maintain the $100,000 level at a time when the broader crypto market anticipates new highs would likely result in a challenging end to 2025 for the entire sector.

Broader Context

The direction of the cryptocurrency market for the remainder of 2025 may be influenced by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Current projections indicate an 81% probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut following a September cut. However, recent US economic data, including a 3.8% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q2, declining jobless claims to 218,000, and a 2.9% year-on-year rise in the US Core PCE Price Index in August, suggest a resilient economy and stable labor market. This environment could lead to a more hawkish Fed rate path, potentially increasing borrowing costs and dampening demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. Investor caution is reflected in weakening demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, which reported net outflows of $418.3 million on September 26, contributing to total net outflows of $897.6 million for the week. The established theory of lengthening Bitcoin cycles has been challenged by the influence of spot ETFs, with Bitcoin's all-time high in 2025 arriving 481 days post-halving, 68 days earlier than the previous cycle. This aligns with the historical average for prior cycle tops. A final window for a potential new record high is identified between September 27 and October 21, 2025.

Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators

Historical precedents from 2021 and 2024 demonstrate that Bitcoin's derivatives and on-chain signals frequently precede price action. In August 2025, the BTC long/short ratio surged from an extreme bearish low of 0.44 in July to 1.55 in early August, stabilizing at 1.03, indicating a shift from short dominance to balanced speculative positioning. Funding rates, which had plummeted to 0.0027 in July 2025, rebounded by 211% to 0.0084 by August, reflecting waning bearish pressure. Concurrently, the Derivative Market Power (DMP) index stabilized, indicating reduced bearish dominance. On-chain data for Q3 2025 shows the MVRV Z-Score dropping to 1.43, a level historically associated with local bottoms in bull cycles. Institutional accumulation in the 1–2 year holding cohort reached 23.23% of the supply.