Schneider National Reports Q3 Earnings Miss, Lowers 2025 EPS Guidance
## Overview of Third-Quarter Performance
**Schneider National, Inc.** (**SNDR**), a prominent transportation and logistics provider, reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of **$0.12**, which fell notably short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of **$0.21**. This figure also represented a significant year-over-year decline of **33.3%**. Concurrently, the company announced a reduction in its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year 2025, signaling a more cautious outlook. Despite the earnings shortfall, **SNDR** did report operating revenues of **$1.45 billion**, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of **$1.43 billion** and marking a **10.4%** increase from the prior-year quarter. Revenues excluding fuel surcharge also advanced **10%** year-over-year to **$1.29 billion**.
## Detailed Earnings and Guidance Revisions
The primary driver of the negative market sentiment stemmed from **Schneider's** revised full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance. The company now anticipates approximately **$0.70** per share, a reduction from its previous range of **$0.75 to $0.95**. This revised outlook contrasts with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of **$0.82**. In addition to the lowered profitability forecast, **Schneider** also adjusted its net capital expenditures for 2025, now expecting them to be around **$300 million**, down from the earlier projected range of **$325 million to $375 million**. The full-year effective tax rate is also expected to increase slightly to **24%** from the prior guidance of **23-24%**. These adjustments indicate a strategic recalibration of financial expectations and operational investments in the coming year.
## Analyst Reactions and Sector Context
The announcement prompted a wave of analyst revisions, reflecting a generally cautious stance on **SNDR** shares. On November 3, 2025, **Citigroup** analyst Ariel Rosa maintained a Neutral rating but lowered the price target to **$23.00** from **$25.00**, an 8% decrease. Similar adjustments were seen from other institutions:
> "Evercore ISI Group, led by analyst Jonathan Chappell, maintained an In-Line rating while lowering the price target from $22.00 to $21.00, marking a 4.55% decrease. TD Cowen’s Jason H. Seidl upheld a Buy rating, reducing the price target to $23.00 from $25.00, an 8% decrease. JP Morgan’s Brian Ossenbeck maintained a Neutral rating, lowering the price target from $28.00 to $27.00, a decrease of 3.57%."
The average one-year price target from 15 analysts stands at **$25.68**, implying a potential upside of **20.71%** from the current price of **$21.27**, with estimates ranging from a high of **$36.00** to a low of **$19.00**.
This trend of reduced capital expenditure guidance from **Schneider** aligns with broader concerns within the market regarding corporate spending. **Citi Research** analysts have highlighted a potential slowdown in capital spending across the S&P 1500, with projected growth of **7%** in 2023 and **2%** in 2024, significantly lower than the **21%** increase observed in 2022. This broader economic context suggests that companies might be prioritizing short-term financial metrics over long-term growth investments, a dynamic that could impact sectors like transportation and logistics.
## Forward-Looking Implications
The updated guidance from **Schneider National** suggests a more challenging operating environment ahead, characterized by pressures on profitability and a more restrained approach to capital deployment. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's ability to navigate these headwinds and the broader economic trends impacting the transportation sector. The revisions in analyst price targets, while generally still showing an implied upside for the stock, underscore the increased uncertainty surrounding **SNDR's** near-term financial performance. Future reports will need to demonstrate stability in earnings and a clear path to growth to re-instill stronger investor confidence.
