Market Outlook Grapples with Earnings Season and Data Uncertainty
U.S. equities closed lower on Thursday, with stock index futures edging modestly higher on Friday, as market participants prepared for the critical third-quarter earnings season from major financial institutions amidst an ongoing U.S. government shutdown. This dual challenge is introducing significant uncertainty, particularly concerning the availability of crucial economic data that typically informs investment decisions and Federal Reserve policy.
Key Financial Institutions Set to Report
The upcoming week marks the commencement of the third-quarter (Q3) 2025 reporting season for several prominent U.S. banking institutions. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) are slated to unveil their results on Tuesday, October 14. These reports are anticipated to set the tone for the broader financial sector. Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are scheduled for Wednesday, October 15, followed by State Street (STT) on Friday, October 17.
Analysts project a strong quarter for many of these institutions. JPMorgan is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $4.87 on revenue of $45.57 billion, driven by robust credit card growth and resilient investment banking momentum. Goldman Sachs anticipates an EPS of $10.62 on $14.13 billion in revenue, benefiting from strong growth in investment banking and Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) segments. Wells Fargo is forecasted to achieve $1.54 EPS on revenues of $21.19 billion, a 4% year-over-year growth, bolstered by stable funding costs and strong loan demand. Citigroup projects a 20% year-over-year rise in earnings to $1.83 per share on $21 billion in revenues, supported by a robust investment banking segment. Bank of America is expected to see a 16% increase in EPS to $0.94, while Morgan Stanley analysts predict EPS of $2.02 on $16.4 billion in revenue, following a recent $20 billion stock buyback program. BlackRock and State Street are also expected to post solid earnings of $11.78 per share on $6.22 billion revenue and $2.57 per share on $3.43 billion revenue, respectively.
Government Shutdown Creates Data Vacuum
Compounding the usual market scrutiny of earnings reports is an ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its second week as of October 10, 2025. This impasse has triggered a significant "data blackout," disrupting the release of critical economic indicators. Key agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have largely suspended operations, delaying crucial reports including the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), weekly unemployment claims, and upcoming retail sales and housing data. The preliminary Q3 GDP figures are also at risk of delay.
This information void leaves financial markets, businesses, and the Federal Reserve without the timely insights needed for informed decision-making. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained silence on monetary policy during his October 9 remarks, avoiding commentary amid the data freeze, which further contributes to market apprehension.
Analysis of Market Reaction and Broader Implications
The market
source:[1] JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Among Big Banks Set To Report Earnings Next Week | Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4829164-jpmo ...)[2] JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs Among Big Banks Set To Report Earnings Next Week (https://seekingalpha.com/news/4020000-jpmorga ...)[3] The Week Ahead: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, UK GDP - CMC Markets (https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/news-and-ana ...)
Edgen Stock·Oct 11 2025, 16:46
