Fundstrat's Tom Lee Forecasts Major Wall Street Macro Shift to Crypto by 2025, Citing AI and Blockchain Convergence
Executive Summary
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee delivered a keynote at Token2049, articulating a vision for 2025 as a pivotal year for Wall Street's macro shift towards crypto. This transformation is anticipated to be driven by the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology, alongside increasing tokenization and institutional adoption. Lee identifies Ethereum as a major beneficiary of this shift, with Bitcoin solidifying its role as a digital value reserve.
The Event in Detail
Tom Lee, co-founder and CIO of Fundstrat, chairman of BitMine, and a Wall Street strategist, presented a keynote speech at TOKEN2049 in Singapore on October 1st, titled "The Biggest Macro Shift on Wall Street Since the Gold Standard." Lee postulates that 2025 will mark a "structural moment" for Wall Street, AI, and blockchain convergence, drawing parallels to the 1971 shift from the gold standard. He asserts that the foundational US regulatory and legislative frameworks are being established, citing initiatives such as the GENIUS Act, the SEC's "Project Crypto," and the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act." These legislative efforts are viewed as laying the groundwork for increased Wall Street involvement and the broader tokenization of assets. Lee highlighted that financial engineering aims to synthesize desired returns by transforming real assets into circulating tokens. A significant development mentioned was SWIFT's recent announcement of a migration trial on Ethereum's second layer, indicating a move towards integrating traditional financial messaging with blockchain infrastructure.
Market Implications
Lee's analysis projects substantial implications across the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is positioned as an "OG" digital value reserve with considerable valuation growth potential. He has forecasted Bitcoin reaching $140,000 based on conservative comparisons to gold's market value, with more aggressive predictions placing it between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, driven by market cycles and seasonality. Lee further suggests Bitcoin could reach $1.4 million to $2.2 million if its market value matches or surpasses that of gold, which currently exceeds $20 trillion compared to Bitcoin's $2.09 trillion. Bitcoin's market capitalization doubled in the past year, indicating an exponential growth pattern.
Ethereum is identified as the "biggest winner" of this macro shift, primarily due to increasing institutional preference and its dominant Total Value Locked (TVL), which accounts for approximately 68% of the market. Lee views TVL as a "floor" supporting Ethereum's valuation. He projects aggressive price targets for Ethereum, including $10,000-$15,000 by year-end, and potential valuations of $12,030 if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to its long-term average of 0.0479, or $22,000 if it reaches the 2021 high of 0.087. Should Ethereum become a primary payment and settlement rail with its network value comparable to Bitcoin's, Lee suggests a potential price of $62,000. He notes Ethereum has undergone an extended consolidation period since 2018, with an upward breakout now underway.
The scope of tokenization is expected to expand comprehensively, moving beyond stablecoins to include stocks, credit, real estate, intellectual property, data, and "Proof of Human" concepts. This expansion is projected to create a massive on-chain economy, potentially reaching $100 trillion, considering that financial transactions constitute roughly half of the global GDP. Deutsche Bank is actively developing an Ethereum Layer-2 blockchain using ZKsync technology to address compliance in regulated finance, with a minimum viable product planned for 2025, highlighting traditional finance's move into tokenized assets.
Lee also anticipates a multi-chain future, acknowledging ample opportunities for other Layer 1 networks such as Solana, Monad, Sei, Hyperliquid, Aptos, and Berachain. He advises against a "tribal" single-chain mindset, emphasizing that the overall blockchain economy is expansive enough for multiple specialized platforms to thrive.
Expert Commentary
Tom Lee's investment argument for "going long on Ethereum" is supported by observations on native blockchain companies' capital efficiency and profit elasticity. He cited Tether as an example, noting its financing valuation of $500 billion with approximately 150 employees, which translates to a "per capita market value" significantly exceeding that of traditional major banks like JPMorgan Chase, despite the latter's $869 billion market value and 317,000 employees. He further referenced MicroStrategy's strategy of increasing Bitcoin holdings, which saw its stock price increase by approximately 25 times over five years, outperforming Bitcoin's own 10-fold increase during the same period. For digital asset treasury companies, Lee advises maintaining clean balance sheets and continuously increasing core asset holdings per share to navigate market cycles.
Broader Context
The predicted shift is underpinned by significant regulatory developments in the United States. President Trump's administration, as of 2025, aims to position the US as the "Crypto Capital of the World." This goal is supported by legislative actions like the GENIUS Act, which provides a framework for stablecoins, and the SEC's "Project Crypto," a Commission-wide initiative to modernize securities rules for on-chain markets. While regulatory efforts are underway, the lack of global agreement on tokenized asset regulations presents scalability challenges, with initiatives like FATF pushing for unified AML and KYC guidelines and regional frameworks such as MiCA in the EU providing some consistency. The broader Web3 movement continues to be seen as an antidote to the monopolization distortions of Web2, focusing on concepts like digital identity, data ownership, and the natural evolution of stablecoins as a "perfect product/market fit." These elements collectively point to a transformative era in global finance, with blockchain technology at its core.