Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) Signals Potential Rebound Amidst Oversold Conditions and Upward Earnings Revisions

Market Performance and Technical Indicators Point to Potential Turnaround for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH) has recently attracted market attention following a notable decline in its share price, juxtaposed with strengthening fundamental indicators. The stock has experienced a 15.4% reduction over the past four weeks, with a more pronounced cumulative fall of 24.89% since a pivot top point on September 2, 2025. This downturn culminated in a closing price of $23.14 on October 15, 2025, down 3.02% on that day alone, accompanied by increased trading volume of 486 thousand shares valued at approximately $11.25 million.

Oversold Conditions and Upward Estimate Revisions Fuel Rebound Speculation

The recent price action has pushed AMPH into technically oversold territory, a condition often signaling a potential reversal. The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 27.23, well below the 30-threshold commonly used to identify oversold assets. This technical setup suggests that the selling pressure may be abating, paving the way for a rebound.

Adding to this technical signal, sell-side analysts have demonstrated renewed confidence in Amphastar's earnings prospects. Over the last 30 days, the consensus Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate for fiscal year 2025 has seen a modest 0.3% increase, moving from $3.09 to $3.10. This upward revision is particularly significant given the recent share price weakness. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), further corroborating the positive outlook from a quantitative perspective.

Underlying Drivers: Strong Q2 Performance and Strategic Pipeline

Despite the recent share price depreciation, the foundation for these upward earnings revisions is rooted in Amphastar's robust operational performance and strategic advancements. The company reported a strong second quarter of 2025, with an EPS of 85 cents, significantly surpassing analyst forecasts of 74 cents, marking a 14.86% positive surprise. Revenues for the quarter also slightly exceeded expectations, reaching $174.4 million against a forecast of $173.95 million.

A critical factor contributing to this performance is the sustained strength of the Baqsimi product line, which recorded a 21% year-over-year sales increase. This highlights Amphastar's successful strategic pivot towards proprietary and biosimilar products, moving away from its historical reliance on generics. This shift is projected to reshape the company's product portfolio, with proprietary products expected to constitute 50% of the total by 2026, up from 21%.

Furthermore, Amphastar's pipeline continues to show promise, with AMP-002 under FDA review, AMP-015 on track for a Q4 2025 GDUFA action date, and the GLP-1 ANDA, AMP-018, expected to receive a response in the second half of 2025. The insulin aspart BLA, AMP-004, represents significant long-term potential. Operationally, the company announced a substantial expansion at its California headquarters, aiming to quadruple domestic manufacturing capacity to mitigate supply chain risks and support R&D. Management's confidence is also evidenced by a new $50 million stock buyback program.

Valuation Metrics Suggest Undervaluation

From a valuation perspective, Amphastar appears attractively priced relative to its industry peers. As of October 17, 2025, the stock trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.81, substantially lower than the industry average of 11.72. Its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 1.49 also significantly undercuts the industry average of 3.6, while the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.72 compares favorably to the industry's 3.63. The Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF) ratio of 6.90 is likewise considerably below the industry average of 19.14. These metrics collectively suggest that Amphastar Pharmaceuticals may be currently undervalued.

Analyst Sentiment and Forward Outlook

Analysts have affirmed their positive stance, with Bank of America recently increasing its price target for AMPH from $28.00 to $32.00, and Needham & Company LLC raising its target to $36.00. These revisions reflect the underlying fundamental strength and strategic direction of the company, despite short-term market pressures. The 52-week low for AMPH stock is $20.39, and the 52-week high is $53.96, highlighting the significant range within which the stock has traded.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor further developments in Amphastar's product pipeline, particularly the progress of FDA reviews and new product launches. The continued performance of key proprietary products like Baqsimi, along with the successful execution of the manufacturing expansion and stock buyback program, will be crucial in reinforcing positive sentiment. While recent technical indicators suggest a near-term rebound, the long-term trajectory will depend on the company's ability to sustain its strategic shift and capitalize on its robust product pipeline. The broader healthcare sector's response to geopolitical factors, such as US-China trade relations, will also continue to influence market sentiment.