Key Takeaways:
Washington's civilian nuclear pact with Riyadh opens a pathway to uranium enrichment even as US warplanes bomb Iran's nuclear fuel-making facilities.
The US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement signed this month permits a two-year study into uranium enrichment, a capability the Pentagon is actively bombing in Iran, as Brent crude trades near $101 a barrel after 13 consecutive nights of American strikes.
"Providing Saudi Arabia a pathway to build the capacity the US Air Force is razing in Iran gives hypocrisy a bad name," said Matthew Kroenig, a professor of government at Georgetown University and co-author of "Exporting the Bomb."
The deal, announced by President Trump, includes a pledge to study enrichment technology over two years but does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, which allows short-notice inspections. One hundred forty-four states have already adopted the protocol; Riyadh has refused. The agreement also lacks the "gold standard" zero-enrichment commitment the United Arab Emirates accepted in its 2009 civilian nuclear pact, a caveat that allows the UAE to renegotiate if any neighbor receives more-generous terms.
The nuclear deal threatens to undermine Washington's nonproliferation posture at a moment when the US is locked in a five-month war with Iran that has pushed crude prices nearly 40% higher since February. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil supplies, remains under effective Iranian blockade, with US warships disabling commercial vessels attempting to breach the cordon.
The agreement comes as the Trump administration weighs whether to intensify military operations against Iran. Trump met with top advisers Friday to discuss options, telling reporters the US is "locked and loaded" while also leaving the door open to diplomacy. The Pentagon has surged 50,000 troops and 20 warships to the region, with F-35s from Britain and F-16s from Germany arriving in recent days.
Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens
US Central Command forces have redirected 12 commercial vessels and disabled two since resuming the naval blockade last week. On Friday, the US military fired into the engine room of the M/T Lavine tanker after the vessel attempted to breach the cordon four times, according to Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesman. Iran has retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, killing three American service members at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.
The Houthi militia, an Iran-backed group in Yemen, declared a maritime blockade on Saudi vessels this week and claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Saudi-led forces responded with airstrikes on Houthi military targets in Hodeidah Province, while the Houthis said they fired rockets at Saudi energy facilities in Jazan and Yanbu.
Nuclear proliferation risks ripple across the region
The US-Saudi deal could trigger a cascade of nuclear ambitions across the Middle East. Egypt and Turkey, both building large nuclear plants, have already refused US requests to forswear fuel-making. The UAE's 2009 agreement with Washington includes a "most-favored-nation" clause allowing it to renegotiate if any neighbor secures enrichment rights. "The Saudi deal could pour proliferation kerosene on these states' smoldering nuclear ambitions," Kroenig said.
US intelligence agencies assess that Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is far more interested than his predecessor in pursuing a nuclear weapon. Iran has moved centrifuges to the heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex, buried up to 2,000 feet below granite and beyond the reach of the largest conventional US bunker-buster bombs. Trump has threatened to attack the facility, calling it "a possible target for a nice big fat shot right in their front door."
The last time Washington signed a civilian nuclear deal with a Middle Eastern state that preserved enrichment rights was the 2005 US-India agreement, which critics said accelerated the regional arms race. India went on to expand its weapons program, and Pakistan followed suit. Today, the Middle East faces a similar dynamic, with Iran's nuclear ambitions unresolved and Saudi Arabia now holding a potential pathway to the same capability.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
