Bitcoin sees $75M realized loss reversal as Glassnode flags bottom setup

A key cohort of Bitcoin holders is showing the first on-chain signs of exhaustion after months of selling at a loss.

Bitcoin holders who bought one to two years ago are cooling their loss realization, with the 30-day average of realized losses reversing from a $75 million peak, Glassnode data show.

"When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market," Cryptovizart, lead research analyst at Glassnode, said in an X post on July 11.

The cohort accumulated between July 2024 and July 2025 as Bitcoin rose from about $62,800 to $107,000, then began selling at a loss as prices stayed below entry levels. The 30-day moving average of realized losses passed $75 million before turning lower — a reversal pattern that has historically preceded durable bear-market bottoms, Glassnode said.

Bitcoin traded at $64,102 as of 14:30 UTC, down 1.05% in 24 hours, with spot volume falling 6.29% to $27.16 billion. The next battleground sits at $69,000 — the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders and a level that coincides with Bitcoin's 2021 record high. "A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact," Glassnode said in its weekly newsletter.

Long-term holder selling peaks

Long-term holder capitulation — the main source of selling pressure throughout this cycle — set its cycle peak two weeks ago and has turned down, Glassnode's latest weekly analysis shows. The metric, which measures coins surrendered by long-term holders each day adjusted for internal transfers, is falling for the first time this cycle.

Buyers showed up at the June lows. Glassnode documented a broad wave of accumulation across wallets of all sizes during that period. Bitcoin's inverse relationship with the dollar has deepened while its correlation with U.S. equities has loosened, and its sensitivity to positive macro news has returned — Tuesday's soft inflation print moved Bitcoin more sharply than any major equity index.

Bollinger flags 'W' pattern

John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, flagged a developing "W" double-bottom pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart. In a July 6 post on X, he called a completed pattern "a confirmation of a change in trend." Bollinger disclosed a long Bitcoin position through his investment vehicle earlier this year.

Wall Street sees trough ahead

The same directional read is appearing among equity analysts covering crypto-exposed stocks. William Blair cut its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates for Coinbase Global Inc. by 34% and reduced revenue forecasts by 12% to 13%, yet maintained an outperform rating, saying earnings should trough by year-end before a 2027 rebound. Coinbase has fallen nearly 30% this year alongside a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin.

The sticking point for both on-chain analysts and Wall Street remains the same: no sustained spot-driven buying has confirmed the recovery yet. Derivative positions are unwinding, long-term sellers are thinning, and the fear premium in the options market is easing. But the capital has not fully arrived. William Blair projects Coinbase's total trading volume will fall roughly 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.