Trump’s UN Address Fuels Risk Aversion, Pressuring Bitcoin Towards $100,000

Executive Summary

US President Donald Trump's September 23, 2025, address to the United Nations General Assembly, characterized by critical remarks on environmentalism and globalism, has significantly heightened global market risk aversion. This sentiment has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a rally in US bond yields, placing considerable pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market, with analysts warning of a potential decline below the $100,000 mark.

The Event in Detail

On September 23, 2025, President Donald Trump delivered a nearly hour-long address at the United Nations General Assembly. His speech focused on themes including criticism of environmental policies, global migration, and the United Nations itself, while reaffirming nationalist independence. This address was perceived by market participants as an aggressive stance, contributing to an immediate shift towards risk-off assets.

The immediate market reaction included a rapid strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), which rose above 97.80. Concurrently, US bond yields increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing to approximately 4.15% for the fifth consecutive day. Gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, also experienced a rally, attracting funds amid heightened uncertainty.

Market Implications

The increased risk aversion stemming from the UN address has exacerbated a pre-existing downturn in the cryptocurrency market, often termed 'Red September.' The total crypto market capitalization has fallen to $3.89 trillion from a recent high of $4.10 trillion, and the Crypto Market Fear & Greed Index has slipped to 45, indicating a sentiment of fear.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant selling pressure, trading around $112,000 to $113,000, representing a more than 3% decline. Ethereum (ETH) fell 7% to $4,150, with other major altcoins such as XRP, BNB, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) seeing declines of 6-10%. This downturn has been compounded by massive liquidations exceeding $1.65 billion in leveraged long positions across the crypto ecosystem, particularly affecting Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Macroeconomic factors continue to drive this market behavior. Despite a modest 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September 2025, the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone, coupled with a revised inflation forecast of 2.5% for 2025 and reduced outlook for future rate cuts, has paradoxically strengthened the US dollar and created headwinds for risk assets. Furthermore, a substantial $23 billion in crypto options is set to expire, adding further volatility and selling pressure, with Ether options having a max pain price of $3,700.

Expert Commentary

BiyaPay analysts have issued warnings regarding Bitcoin's vulnerability amid these conditions. They caution that if Bitcoin breaks below the $112,000 level, it could trigger a significant sell-off and a deeper market correction, potentially accelerating its fall below the $100,000 threshold due to growing liquidity concerns, shrinking trading volumes, and weak momentum. Bloomberg Intelligence's senior strategist Mike McGlone has also indicated that crypto assets, including Bitcoin, may signal a larger risk-assets bubble than internet stocks in 1999, given the prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Conversely, some analyses suggest a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, arguing that President Trump's focus on traditional energy production could lead to cheaper electricity, benefiting Bitcoin mining. Additionally, his stance on nationalism and border protection is posited to indirectly boost Bitcoin's role as a decentralized asset, particularly for those in regions affected by hyperinflation or economic instability. However, this long-term perspective contrasts with the immediate market reaction of increased risk aversion.

Broader Context

The current market environment underscores the increasing interconnectedness of cryptocurrencies with global macroeconomic factors. The observed inverse relationship between the US dollar's strength and crypto prices, alongside the influence of central bank monetary policies, challenges the narrative of crypto as a completely uncorrelated asset class. Bitcoin is currently diverging from traditional safe havens like gold and tech stocks, which are following the Global M2 Money Supply.

In response to heightened volatility, platforms like BiyaPay are offering diversified investment options, including support for USDT investment in US and Hong Kong stocks, to assist investors in managing cross-market risks. BiyaPay, holding international compliance certifications such as New Zealand FSP, US RIA, and Canadian MSB, has also recently launched digital currency contract trading and implemented zero-fee spot contract trading to enhance market liquidity and provide tools for navigating fluctuating digital asset values.