Edgen Stock·Nov 16 2025, 12:17
[1] President Trump's $2,000 Tariff Dividends And 50-Year Mortgages Could Break The Market (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4844335-pres ...)[2] Trump's 50-Year Mortgage: Lower Payments, Higher Lifetime Cost - Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickwatson/20 ...)[3] President Trump's Tariff Dividends Could Juice the Stock Market Just Like Pandemic Stimulus Checks - Inc. Magazine (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)
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Nov 18 2025, 15:16
U.S. Government Reopening Paves Way for Delayed September Jobs Report, Stirring Market Anticipation
## Executive Summary The conclusion of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown has initiated the release of delayed economic statistics, with the September jobs report now officially scheduled for Thursday, November 20. This release is a pivotal event for financial markets, which have been operating in a data vacuum. The report from the **Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)** is expected to provide the first clear measure of the labor market's condition and heavily influence the **Federal Reserve's** near-term monetary policy decisions. ## The Event in Detail The U.S. government's reopening has allowed federal agencies to begin clearing a significant backlog of economic reports. The most anticipated of these is the September nonfarm payrolls report, which the **BLS** confirmed will be released at 8:30 AM ET on November 20. The shutdown, which spanned all of October and the beginning of November, not only delayed the September data but also prevented the collection of data for October. As a result, officials have noted that the October household survey, a key component for estimating the unemployment rate, was not conducted. This has led to concerns about the integrity of the upcoming economic reports. ## Market Implications For the past six weeks, markets and policymakers have been described as "flying blind." The **Federal Reserve**, which predicates its policy on being "data-dependent," has been effectively "data-starved." The release of the September jobs data is therefore critical. A strong report could signal underlying economic resilience, potentially giving the **Fed** justification to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates. Conversely, a weak report could amplify fears of an economic slowdown, placing pressure on the central bank to consider more accommodative policies. Analysts anticipate heightened market volatility as investors recalibrate their expectations based on this first piece of hard data. ## Expert Commentary Market participants have expressed concerns over the quality of the backlogged data. One analyst noted the potential for permanent impairment of the information, stating, "All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period." BMO Capital Markets analysts have expressed that while there is "relief in sight" with the return of data, significant "risks remain" regarding its interpretation and completeness. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett highlighted the data gap, stating, "we’re going to get half the employment report" due to the unconducted October household survey. ## Broader Context The data drought occurred at a time when the U.S. economy was already navigating headwinds, including trade tariff uncertainty and the economic impact of artificial intelligence adoption. The absence of reliable government statistics has magnified this uncertainty for investors and corporate decision-makers. Furthermore, the shutdown's impact will have lasting consequences, as certain reports, such as the October inflation data, will not be produced at all because the underlying data could not be collected. This creates a permanent gap in the nation's economic record, complicating long-term trend analysis.
Nov 17 2025, 06:06
Nordea Bank Abp Stock Performance and Financial Fundamentals Reviewed
## Market Performance and Key Financial Indicators **Nordea Bank Abp** (NDA FI) has demonstrated notable market performance, with its share price advancing by **41.7%** year-to-date and **52.9%** over the past year. This considerable appreciation prompts a comprehensive review of the bank's underlying financial health and future prospects. In the third quarter of 2025, Nordea reported a strong **return on equity (ROE)** of **15.8%**, surpassing its financial outlook of above 15% for the year. This performance was achieved despite a challenging environment marked by geopolitical tensions and policy rate reductions, which led to a **6% decline in net interest income**. However, this was offset by a **5% increase in net fee and commission income** and a **10% growth in net insurance results**. ### Detailed Operational Performance Nordea's resilience is further highlighted by its robust lending growth, with **mortgage lending rising 6% year-on-year** and **corporate lending also expanding by 6%**. These increases were driven by organic growth in Sweden and strategic acquisitions in Norway, alongside Nordic companies adjusting to the prevailing operating environment. **Assets under management (AuM)** increased by **11% to EUR 456 billion**, with strong Nordic net flows contributing **EUR 4.4 billion** during the quarter. The bank's capital position remains strong, evidenced by a **Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 15.9%**, significantly above regulatory requirements. This robust capital base has enabled the launch of a new **EUR 250 million share buy-back program**, expected to complete before year-end 2025, following a broader EUR 6 billion initiative since 2021. ### Valuation Perspectives and Market Reaction The market's positive reaction to Nordea's performance aligns with its solid financial results and proactive capital management. However, valuation metrics present a nuanced picture. An **Excess Returns model** suggests that Nordea's stock is undervalued by **40.3%**. This model assesses the return an investment achieves above a designated benchmark, indicating that Nordea is generating returns significantly beyond market expectations given its risk profile. Conversely, a review of the bank's **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio** indicates it is slightly overvalued compared to its historical "Fair Ratio." The P/E ratio, which compares a company's share price to its earnings per share, serves as a common metric for assessing whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued. For Nordea, the latest reported earnings per share for Q3 2025 was **EUR 0.36**. Consensus among investors often considers a P/E ratio between 10 and 20 as "fairly valued," though this is sector-dependent. ### Broader Context and Future Implications Nordea's strategic emphasis on the Nordic region aligns with broader regional growth expectations. For instance, **Telenor** (TEL), another prominent Nordic entity, anticipates low-to-mid single-digit organic core earnings growth in the Nordic region until 2030, underscoring the potential for sustained economic activity in the area. Nordea's **cost-to-income ratio**, at **46.1%**, reflects ongoing investments in digital and data capabilities aimed at supporting margin resilience. While the bank's net profit margin has seen a slight decline from 43.1% to 41.3%, its five-year annual earnings growth averaged 15.6%. However, recent analyst consensus projects a slight decline in earnings by **-0.03% per year** over the next three years, with revenue growth estimated at a modest **2.2% annually**, a slower pace than the Finnish market average. > "Consensus forecasts for slow revenue growth and a gradual decline in margins temper any high-conviction buy case, implying the market expects Nordea's profitability to remain flat rather than rebound," one analysis stated. Despite these projections, Nordea's robust capital structure, as demonstrated by stress tests, indicates its ability to absorb economic shocks. Even under severe stress scenarios, the bank's CET1 capital ratio is projected to remain above regulatory minimums, providing a substantial buffer. The ongoing share buy-back program further signifies management's confidence and commitment to enhancing shareholder value. Investors will closely monitor Nordea's ability to maintain its strong return on equity, manage net interest income in a fluctuating interest rate environment, and leverage its Nordic expansion strategy to counter pressures on future earnings growth. The completion of the current share buy-back program and future capital allocation decisions will also be key focus areas.
Nov 17 2025, 05:02
SRG Global Ltd Reports Strong FY2025 Financial Performance and Robust Work Pipeline
## Opening **SRG Global Ltd (ASX:SRG)** reported a robust financial performance for the full year 2025, with significant increases across key financial metrics, signaling a strong operational period and a positive outlook. The company's results were characterized by substantial revenue growth, improved profitability, and an expanded work pipeline, contributing to an optimistic market sentiment. ## The Event in Detail **SRG Global** achieved approximately **$1.3 billion** in revenue for FY2025, reflecting broad-based operational strength. The company's **EBITDA** (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) saw a notable increase of **29%**, reaching **$127.1 million** compared to FY2024. **EBIT** (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) also demonstrated strong growth, climbing **43%** to **$93.8 million**. Shareholders benefited from this performance, with **Earnings Per Share (EPS)** rising **34%** to **$0.103**. In line with its commitment to shareholder returns, **SRG Global** declared a dividend of **$0.055 per share**, an increase of **22%** from the corresponding period. Furthermore, the company's **Work in Hand** expanded by **20%** over the last 12 months, reaching a substantial **$3.6 billion**, underpinning future revenue visibility. ## Analysis of Market Reaction The strong financial results from **SRG Global** are anticipated to foster a **bullish** market sentiment surrounding the stock. The significant growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with increased shareholder distributions, directly addresses investor expectations for operational efficiency and value creation. The **20%** increase in **Work in Hand** is particularly impactful, as it provides a clear indication of sustained demand for the company's services and future earnings potential, thereby strengthening investor confidence in the company's long-term trajectory. This performance suggests the company is effectively navigating its operational environment and converting project execution into tangible financial gains. ## Broader Context & Implications **SRG Global's** strong performance aligns with a broader trend of companies reporting robust financial results and strategic expansions in various sectors. For instance, **RENK Group AG** reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting revenue to exceed **1.3 billion euros** and adjusted **EBIT** between **210 and 235 million euros**, alongside significant order intake growth. Similarly, **Force Motors** demonstrated considerable financial improvement, with a **159%** year-over-year increase in consolidated net profit in Q3 and a **7.2%** revenue growth, highlighting resilience in manufacturing sectors. In the chemicals and industrial sector, **Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE.UN)** reported its highest quarterly Adjusted EBITDA since inception, increasing **10.2%** year-over-year, and raised its full-year 2025 guidance. **Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)** also posted a steady full-year result, with underlying **EBIT** up **12%** and underlying net profit after tax climbing **34%**, accompanied by a solid dividend and optimistic FY26 outlook. **NACCO Industries® (NYSE: NC)** further underscored a positive trend in shareholder returns by announcing an **11%** increase in its quarterly cash dividend, marking its seventh consecutive annual dividend hike. These diverse performances across different industries suggest an underlying economic stability and strategic corporate actions driving positive outcomes. The investment by **NVIDIA** in Cassava Technologies, aimed at strengthening GPU-as-a-Service in Africa, also points to continued strategic capital deployment and expansion in high-growth technology areas. ## Looking Ahead **SRG Global's** substantial **Work in Hand** positions the company favorably for continued growth in the coming periods. The company's consistent delivery of financial targets and increased dividends suggests a stable operational and capital management strategy. Future monitoring will focus on the conversion of this robust pipeline into realized revenue and profitability, as well as the company's ability to maintain its margin expansion. The current financial strength also provides a solid foundation for potential strategic initiatives or further market penetration, which could further enhance its long-term shareholder value. The broader market will continue to observe how companies like **SRG Global** leverage their strong foundations amidst evolving economic conditions and industry-specific opportunities.