US-Iran Conflict Pushes Oil to $119, Squeezing European Economies
President Trump's aggressive foreign and trade policies are exacting a direct economic toll on European nations, creating a difficult political environment for his ideological allies. The US-led military attack on Iran sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets, with WTI crude oil prices shooting to $119 per barrel. This price shock threatens to stifle Europe's fragile economic recovery by driving up energy costs and fueling inflation. The disruption compounds the damage from US tariffs imposed on the European Union and the U.K., which have strained transatlantic trade relations since 2025 and directly impact Europe's export-dependent industries.
Allies Pivot as Public Support for US Policy Falls to 25%
The economic fallout is forcing a political recalibration among Trump's most prominent European supporters. With polling from YouGov showing that only a quarter of Britons and Germans approve of the US attack on Iran, nationalist leaders are distancing themselves from the White House. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, has shifted from initial support to stating that Britain should not get involved. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's praise for Trump has cooled, while her deputy Matteo Salvini rejected calls to police the Strait of Hormuz. Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which previously embraced the MAGA movement, is now grappling with internal division over its US alignment.
We cannot be the lap dog of an ‘America First’ policy if it destroys German jobs.
— Peter Felser, senior AfD lawmaker.
BMW Warns of €1 Billion Profit Hit From Tariffs
The strain is most visible in Europe's corporate sector, which is highly exposed to global trade shifts. German carmaker BMW warned that tariffs imposed by the US and China could erase approximately €1 billion from its profits this year, underscoring how directly protectionist policies translate into financial damage for European multinationals. This vulnerability is systemic; in 2025, for example, Asia accounted for 41% of Mercedes-Benz's sales. This heavy reliance on foreign markets, a characteristic of the European economic model, leaves its largest companies particularly sensitive to geopolitical friction and trade disruptions, forcing a difficult choice between international alliances and domestic economic stability.