Trip.com Group (TCOM) Shares Advance Following Golden Cross Formation and Positive Earnings Outlook

Trip.com Group (TCOM) Experiences Golden Cross Amidst Bullish Sentiment

Trip.com Group Limited Sponsored ADR (TCOM) recently registered a "golden cross" technical pattern, a widely recognized bullish signal indicating potential upward price momentum. This development follows a period of robust performance, with TCOM shares advancing by 22% over the past four weeks leading up to September 10, 2025.

Technical Indicators and Market Response

The "golden cross" is characterized by a stock's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ascending above its 200-day SMA. This pattern typically unfolds in three stages: an initial downtrend bottoming out, the shorter moving average crossing the longer one, and a subsequent phase of sustained price appreciation. As of recent data, TCOM's 50-day SMA stood at $68.93, surpassing its 200-day SMA of $63.51. The stock closed recently at $74.12, contributing to a market capitalization of $48.42 billion.

This technical formation coincides with a favorable shift in market sentiment towards Trip.com. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reinforced by a positive earnings outlook. Notably, no earnings estimates have been lowered over the past two months, while three revisions have moved higher, contributing to an increased Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Earnings Projections and Valuation Metrics

For the current quarter, analysts project Trip.com to report earnings of $1.15 per share, representing an 8% year-over-year decline. However, net sales are estimated to reach $2.54 billion, marking a 12.35% increase from the prior year. For the full fiscal year, earnings are anticipated to rise by 2.79% to $3.69 per share, with revenue expected to increase by 15.15% to $8.54 billion. The upward trajectory in full-year estimates underscores growing analyst confidence in the company's future performance.

From a valuation perspective, TCOM exhibits compelling metrics when compared to its industry peers. Its Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.78 is notably below rivals such as Booking Holdings (BKNG), which stands at 32.74, and comfortably under the travel sector's median P/E of 23.39. Furthermore, the company's Price-to-Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.95, calculated using its 5-year EBITDA growth rate of 24.4%, suggests potential undervaluation, as it is lower than the Travel & Leisure industry's median of 1.09. A PEG ratio below 1 often indicates a bargain, positioning TCOM favorably against over 55% of its industry counterparts. The company also demonstrates sound financial health, reporting a current ratio of 1.33, a quick ratio of 1.33, and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, alongside total cash of $11.17 billion in its most recent quarter.

Broader Market Context and Institutional Activity

Trip.com's recent performance is situated within a broader post-pandemic resurgence in the travel sector. Over the past 12 months, the stock has appreciated by 61.90%, with a year-to-date return of 10.33%. The recent monthly gain of 21.46% highlights significant investor interest. Institutional investors maintain a substantial presence, collectively accounting for 35.41% of the company's stock. Notable institutional activity includes Strs Ohio's acquisition of 128,834 shares valued at approximately $8.19 million and Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. Ltd.'s substantial increase in holdings by 1,609.6%, now owning 12,920,955 shares valued at $821.51 million.

Expert Commentary and Future Outlook

Analyst sentiment surrounding Trip.com is predominantly bullish. Zacks Research recently upgraded TCOM from a "hold" to a "strong-buy" rating. Firms including Mizuho, Barclays, and Sanford C. Bernstein have also raised their price targets and issued "outperform" or "overweight" ratings. The consensus rating for TCOM is "Buy," with an average target price of $76.98. Specific price targets from prominent firms include Jefferies reiterating an $85.00 target, JPMorgan raising its target to $90.00, Barclays to $85.00, and Benchmark maintaining an $80.00 target.

Looking ahead, analysts emphasize Trip.com's position as a "one-stop travel platform focusing on excellent service" and underscore travel as a "secular growth story." The integration of artificial intelligence is expected to further enhance user experience and drive cost efficiencies. Additionally, the significant growth potential in inbound travel to China, which currently represents less than 0.5% of the nation's GDP, positions Trip.com for sustained expansion. Investors will likely monitor upcoming earnings reports and further developments in global travel trends as key indicators for TCOM's trajectory.