Shangmei Forecasts 44% Profit Growth, Retains 'Buy' Rating

Edgen Stock·Mar 09 2026, 03:30

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Key Takeaways

Shangmei Co. issued a strong positive earnings forecast for 2025, projecting significant double-digit growth in both revenue and profit. The performance is driven by the continued dominance of its core skincare brand, Han束, and the rapid emergence of its new baby care line, NewPage. In response, investment bank Shenwan Hongyuan reaffirmed its "Buy" rating, signaling confidence in the company's multi-brand strategy and future growth prospects.

Profitability Soars: The company projects its 2025 net profit will increase by 41.9% to 44.4% year-over-year, significantly outpacing its robust revenue growth forecast of 34.0% to 35.4%.
Core Brand Dominance: The flagship brand, Han束, remains the primary growth engine, having sold 16.5 million sets of its "Red Waist" series and topped Douyin's beauty sales chart for three consecutive years.
Analyst Confidence: Shenwan Hongyuan reiterated its "Buy" rating on the stock, citing the company's successful brand incubation, channel optimization, and strategic expansion which position it to capture market share.

Shangmei Projects 2025 Profit Growth Up to 44.4%

On March 9, cosmetics firm Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) released a positive earnings pre-announcement for its 2025 fiscal year, signaling sharply higher profitability. The company expects total revenue to reach between 9.1 and 9.2 billion yuan, a 34.0% to 35.4% increase from 2024's 6.8 billion yuan. More impressively, net profit attributable to shareholders is forecast to be between 1.14 and 1.16 billion yuan, representing a substantial 41.9% to 44.4% year-over-year jump from 803 million yuan in 2024.

The results indicate accelerating momentum, with performance in the second half of the year showing significant strength. Revenue in 25H2 is projected to grow by approximately 51.7% to 54.8%, while profit is expected to climb by 49.3% to 54.4%, demonstrating improved operational efficiency and market penetration.

Han束 and NewPage Brands Drive Multi-Brand Success

The company's growth is anchored by its effective multi-brand strategy. The core brand, Han束, continues to be the primary revenue driver, with its popular "Red Waist" series achieving total sales of 16.5 million sets. Its market leadership is solidified by its ranking as the top-selling beauty brand on Douyin for three straight years.

At the same time, Shangmei has proven its ability to incubate new ventures successfully. The new baby skincare brand, NewPage, delivered substantial revenue growth, establishing itself as a new pillar for the company. By targeting the high-growth, high-margin infant功效 skincare segment, NewPage has rapidly captured market share and validated the company's strategic approach to category expansion.

Shenwan Hongyuan Reaffirms 'Buy' on Strategic Execution

Following the strong forecast, Shenwan Hongyuan maintained its "Buy" rating for Shangmei, expressing confidence in the company's long-term advantages. The investment bank highlighted Shangmei's clear "Single Focus, Multi-Brand, Globalization" strategy. The report anticipates the Han束 brand alone will approach 10 billion yuan in sales, while new brands like the baby-focused NewPage, sensitive-skin line Anminyou, and makeup brand NanBeauty fill critical market gaps.

Looking ahead, Shangmei plans to expand globally into North America and Europe. Based on its growth trajectory, Shenwan Hongyuan's analysts project forward P/E ratios of 18x for 2025, 15x for 2026, and 12x for 2027, suggesting an increasingly attractive valuation as earnings grow.