Saudi Arabia Acts to Prevent Red Sea Conflict Expansion
Saudi Arabia is actively attempting to prevent Yemen's Houthi rebels from entering the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, according to reports from U.S. officials on March 21. The diplomatic push aims to de-escalate a volatile situation following an Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gas field and retaliatory Iranian attacks on energy sites across Gulf Arab states. Regional powers are trying to contain the conflict, fearing that Houthi involvement would open a new and highly disruptive front in the Red Sea.
Houthi Blockade Threatens 7 Million Barrels Per Day
The primary concern for global markets is the security of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow maritime chokepoint off Yemen's coast largely controlled by the Houthis. This strait is essential for global trade, handling approximately 6% of the world's seaborne oil. With the Strait of Hormuz already facing disruptions, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West pipeline to move crude to its Red Sea port of Yanbu for export. A Houthi attack on Yanbu or a successful blockade of the strait could remove an estimated 7 million barrels of oil per day from the market, triggering a severe supply shock.
While the Houthis have so far remained on the sidelines, their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has stated their forces have their "fingers on the trigger." Analysts suggest Iran is holding the Houthi forces in reserve as a strategic option to escalate economic pressure if the war intensifies. This threat has already pushed crude oil prices above the $100-per-barrel mark, with the cost for some Asian refineries surging to $156 per barrel, reflecting the significant supply risk priced into the market.