Obesity Therapeutics Market Forecasts Indicate Robust Growth, GLP-1 Agonists Lead Expansion

Market Expansion in Obesity Therapeutics Accelerates

The obesity therapeutics market is entering a phase of significant expansion, projected to approach US$20.84 billion by 2033 from US$3.92 billion in 2024, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.6%. This growth is underpinned by increased demand for pharmacological treatments for obesity and a redefinition of obesity as a chronic disease requiring medical management. Analysts now forecast the weight-loss pharmaceuticals segment could reach US$130 billion by 2030.

GLP-1 Agonists Lead Market Performance

Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists have emerged as the dominant class within the obesity treatment therapeutic space, securing approximately 80% of market revenues in 2024. Their superior efficacy and widespread adoption have positioned them as a primary catalyst for the market's robust growth. While injectables currently hold an 82% share, there is a strategic shift towards developing oral delivery methods and other long-acting therapies to capture future market leadership. The market's potential has also spurred significant investment and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, including a recent deal valued at US$5.3 billion.

Key Players Drive Innovation and Growth

Several pharmaceutical giants and innovative biotechs are intensely focused on capturing market share within this expanding sector.

AstraZeneca (AZN.L) is targeting mid-double-digit percentage annual growth in its obesity segment through 2030, with a potential revenue target of US$6 billion in obesity therapeutics alone. The company's strategy involves substantial investment in dual-agonist royalty deals and manufacturing capacity expansion to challenge established players in the GLP-1 domain.

Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RYTM) reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 40% in 2024 within its obesity franchise. The company's pipeline includes late-stage assets expected to deliver weight-loss efficacy exceeding 20%, positioning it in direct competition with GLP-1 analogues and signaling strong investor confidence in its novel approaches.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (4502.T) aims to secure 10% of global oral obesity-therapy sales by 2028, with an internal revenue goal of US$2.3 billion by that timeframe. Takeda is actively advancing lipase-inhibitor enhancements and appetite-suppressant combinations, targeting global markets including Japan and the Asia-Pacific region.

Eli Lilly (LLY) is regarded as a leader in the U.S. obesity drug market. Its products, Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for chronic weight management), collectively boast an estimated 1.1 million active prescriptions in the U.S. Sales of Zepbound surged by a record 172%, while Mounjaro sales increased by 68%. These two products now constitute nearly half of Lilly's total revenue, with continued rapid growth anticipated. Eli Lilly is also developing orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 medication, and retatrutide, a next-generation subcutaneous obesity drug, with a regulatory application for orforglipron expected by year-end. Sel Hardy, senior equity research analyst at CFRA, maintains a "buy" opinion on Eli Lilly shares, setting a price target of US$964, believing the company is well-positioned to benefit from the GLP-1 boom and aging population trends.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) remains a significant player, holding approximately 71% of the international GLP-1 market, despite some loss of market share. Its drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, which contain semaglutide, account for roughly 968,000 prescriptions in the United States. A valuation model projects Novo Nordisk stock could advance from $53/share to $67/share by December 2027, representing a 27% total return.

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is developing VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist available in both subcutaneous (Phase 3 trials) and oral versions (Phase 2 trials). Canaccord considers Viking Therapeutics a leading developer of obesity drugs. Citigroup analyst Samantha Semenkow anticipates an upcoming data readout from BioAge to positively impact the stock.

Broader Market Context and Investment Implications

The anti-obesity drugs market is projected to reach US$43.7 billion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 45.5% from a US$2.5 billion valuation in 2022. Morgan Stanley Research forecasts the global market for obesity drugs could reach US$150 billion by 2035, an increase from previous estimates of US$105 billion. The recognition of obesity as a chronic disease and expanding reimbursement policies are key drivers. The number of Americans utilizing drugs like semaglutide or tirzepatide for weight loss more than doubled over the past 18 months, from 5.8% to 12.4%. DataM Intelligence predicts 16 new obesity drug candidates by 2029, potentially pushing the market size beyond US$100 billion by the early 2030s.

Expert Commentary

"Eli Lilly is well-positioned to benefit from the GLP-1 boom and aging population trends." — Sel Hardy, Senior Equity Research Analyst, CFRA

"An upcoming data readout at BioAge will jolt the stock." — Samantha Semenkow, Analyst, Citigroup (referring to Viking Therapeutics)

Looking Ahead: Innovation and Market Dynamics

The future of the obesity therapeutics market will be shaped by continued innovation, particularly in the realm of oral delivery mechanisms, which are seen as critical for "next-wave leadership" given the current dominance of injectables. The pipeline of new drug candidates, coupled with robust investment and M&A activity, suggests a dynamic and rapidly evolving landscape. Investors are watching for further clinical trial data, regulatory approvals, and strategic partnerships as companies vie for position in this high-growth sector. Specialized investment vehicles, such as the Tema Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF and the VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH), offer avenues for broad exposure to this burgeoning market.