Life Insurance Sector Navigates Mixed Q2 Earnings and Strategic De-risking

Q2 Earnings Reports Reveal Sector Disparities

The life insurance sector concluded the second quarter of 2025 with a series of mixed earnings reports, leading to varied investor responses across the industry. While some companies reported revenue beats, post-earnings stock movements indicated a deeper scrutiny of operational resilience, strategic positioning, and long-term capital efficiency.

Key Company Performances and Strategic Actions

Equitable Holdings (NYSE:EQH) reported second-quarter revenues of $3.80 billion, representing a 5.1% year-on-year increase but falling short of analyst expectations by 4.5%. Non-GAAP operating earnings per share stood at $1.10, an 8% decrease from the prior year. The company attributed this shortfall primarily to elevated mortality in its Individual Life block. Despite the earnings miss, Equitable Holdings executed a significant strategic move on July 31st, closing a reinsurance transaction with RGA Reinsurance Company (RGA). This agreement involves RGA reinsuring 75% of Equitable Holdings' in-force individual life insurance block on a pro-rata basis. The deal is projected to generate over $2 billion in value for Equitable Holdings, significantly reducing its exposure to future mortality volatility by 75% and bolstering its pro-forma combined risk-based capital (RBC) ratio to above 500%.

In contrast, Corebridge Financial (NYSE:CRBG) reported robust Q2 revenues of $4.42 billion, an increase of 14.8% year-on-year, outperforming analyst expectations by 7.3%. However, despite this strong revenue beat, Corebridge Financial's stock declined by 7.8% since reporting. Similarly, F&G Annuities & Life (FG) posted Q2 revenues that exceeded expectations by 13.8%, yet its stock experienced a 9.5% decline post-earnings.

CNO Financial Group (CNO) recorded Q2 revenues of $1.15 billion, missing expectations by 0.7%. Nevertheless, its stock advanced by 6.2% following the report. This positive market reaction was underpinned by the company's strong operational health, record new annualized premiums, and disciplined capital management, including $100 million in share repurchases during the quarter.

Analysis of Market Reaction and Underlying Factors

The divergent stock reactions among life insurers underscore a market that is increasingly sensitive to strategic capital deployment and risk management, alongside traditional earnings metrics. For Equitable Holdings, while the earnings figures were below expectations, the market appears to have weighed the long-term benefits of the RGA reinsurance transaction. This deal is seen as a pivotal step in de-risking the balance sheet, reducing earnings volatility, and allowing EQH to enhance its focus on higher-growth segments like retirement, asset management, and wealth management.

The declines in Corebridge Financial and F&G Annuities & Life's stock prices, despite strong revenue beats, suggest that investors may be evaluating these companies through a broader lens, potentially considering future economic policy uncertainties such as tariffs and corporate tax changes, or underlying concerns about valuation and sector-specific challenges not immediately reflected in top-line growth.

CNO Financial Group's stock advance, despite a revenue miss, highlights investor confidence in its operational strategy. The company's focus on the middle-income market, strong digital sales growth, and robust capital position, evidenced by its 11.2% operating return on equity (ROE) and high RBC ratio, resonated positively with the market, indicating that strategic execution and shareholder returns can sometimes override quarterly revenue variations.

Broader Context and Industry Implications

The reinsurance transaction between Equitable Holdings and RGA exemplifies a growing trend within the life insurance industry: the proactive de-risking of balance sheets through the transfer of mortality risk to reinsurers. This strategy enables primary insurers to optimize capital allocation towards less capital-intensive businesses and improve earnings predictability. For reinsurers like RGA, such deals provide opportunities to deploy capital into substantial blocks of business that meet their return objectives. RGA deployed $1.5 billion of capital in this transaction and expects it to contribute meaningfully to its adjusted operating EPS.

The global life insurance market is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 3% in 2025 and 2026, a significant increase from the past decade's average. This growth is driven by several macroeconomic factors, including rising real wages, sustained higher interest rates in key markets like the U.S., aging populations, and the expanding middle class in emerging economies. In the U.S., individual annuity sales are forecast to exceed $400 billion in 2024, significantly surpassing the $234 billion average of the last decade, reflecting consumer appetite for stable income in a higher interest rate environment.

Expert Commentary

Mark Pearson, President and CEO of Equitable Holdings, stated that the RGA deal creates compelling strategic and financial value, is accretive to 2027 financial targets, and strengthens the balance sheet, allowing for proceeds redeployment to drive significant shareholder value. Tony Cheng, President and CEO of RGA, highlighted the deal as a strategic initiative aligning with RGA's "Creation Re strategy" and demonstrating its ability to partner with clients for mutually beneficial outcomes.

Analyst sentiment for Corebridge Financial has been mixed, with Wells Fargo maintaining an "Overweight" rating and raising its price target to $44.00, while Morgan Stanley and Barclays maintained "Overweight" but slightly lowered price targets. UBS upgraded its rating on CRBG from "Sell" to "Neutral." For Equitable Holdings, analysts express a bullish outlook, citing the RGA reinsurance deal's ability to unlock $2 billion in capital and shift earnings towards more stable, fee-based streams, expecting EQH shares to move past $60 by late next year.

Looking Ahead

The life insurance sector is poised for continued evolution, with companies focusing on capital efficiency, risk mitigation, and adapting to demographic shifts. For Equitable Holdings, future performance will hinge on the successful redeployment of capital from the RGA deal, including potential increases in its ownership stake in AllianceBernstein and further share repurchases. Investors will closely monitor the trajectory of net flows within the asset management segments and the pace of growth in retirement and wealth management assets across the industry.

Broader economic factors, such as the direction of interest rates and the impact of potential tariffs and corporate tax changes, will continue to shape the operating environment. While Fitch Ratings anticipates a gradual decrease in the federal funds target rate through 2026, the overall stability of the economic environment and geopolitical landscape remain critical watch factors for the sector's trajectory.