JonesResearch Initiates Coverage on Bitdeer, Citing Significant Upside Potential

Analyst Coverage Spurs Bitdeer Stock Advance

Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) shares experienced a notable advance on Monday, October 6, following the initiation of coverage by JonesResearch with a "Buy" rating. The research firm set a price target of $32 per share, implying an approximate 60% upside from recent trading levels. This analyst endorsement contributed to a 4.02% increase in BTDR shares, closing at $20.20 on Friday, October 3rd, and registered a 4.3% pre-market gain on Monday. The move coincided with a broader surge in cryptocurrency-related stocks, as Bitcoin surpassed the $125,000 mark over the weekend.

Detailed Rationale Behind the Bullish Outlook

JonesResearch's optimistic valuation is grounded in a detailed analysis, applying a 20x Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple to Bitdeer's projected 2026 EBITDA of $435.5 million. This multiple, while aligning with hybrid mining peers, also acknowledges Bitdeer's anticipated leadership in High-Performance Computing (HPC) hosting.

Key pillars supporting the price target include Bitdeer's vertically integrated Sealminer rig production, which is expected to drive down self-mining gross margins and enhance fleet efficiencies to 14.2 J/TH by late 2027. Furthermore, external sales of Sealminer rigs are conservatively modeled at 19 Exahashes per second (EH/s) in 2026 and 32 EH/s in 2027, presenting a substantial "call option-like opportunity" in the $3 billion–$5 billion ASIC hardware market.

Crucially, JonesResearch identifies significant unrecognized value in Bitdeer's AI/HPC colocation assets. The 570 MW Clarington, Ohio site is valued between $26.64–$36.46 per share under full-economics ownership, while the 309 MW Norwegian portfolio adds an estimated $14.44–$19.77 per share.

Market Reaction and Broader Context

The positive analyst coverage and the concurrent rally in the broader cryptocurrency market, spurred by Bitcoin's record high, created a favorable environment for BTDR. The Nasdaq's trading volume for BTDR on October 6, 2025, reached 11,893,949 shares, significantly exceeding its average volume of 4,334,547, indicating heightened investor interest.

Bitdeer's current trading valuation, at 6.8–10.6x EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates, stands markedly below the coverage universe’s median of 18.3–28.7x. This disparity suggests a substantial undervaluation that JonesResearch's initiation seeks to address. The report implies that the market has not fully accounted for Bitdeer's strategic positioning in both Bitcoin mining and the burgeoning AI/HPC sector.

The growing convergence of AI infrastructure and cryptocurrency mining is also a significant factor. Recent developments, such as OpenAI's multi-billion dollar chip agreement with AMD, have bolstered AI/HPC-focused Bitcoin mining companies, highlighting the increasing interconnectedness of these high-growth domains.

Expert Commentary

JonesResearch analysts emphasized Bitdeer's competitive advantage within the ASIC hardware market:

"Among new entrants (including Auradine and Block), Bitdeer appears best positioned to capture share from Bitmain."

This statement underscores the firm's belief in Bitdeer's technological and operational edge. The company's management, led by Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu, also brings considerable expertise and a track record in both hardware development and capital allocation.

Looking Ahead: Catalysts and Considerations

Several catalysts could further unlock value for Bitdeer. These include the successful execution of colocation leases at its Clarington and Norwegian facilities, and the planned release of the next-generation Sealminer A4-2 rig in late 2026, targeting efficiencies of 5.5–6.0 J/TH.

While the outlook is largely positive, investors should consider potential risks such as energy-cost volatility, equity dilution through ATM issuances, and related-party custody exposures with Matrixport. However, JonesResearch contends that these risks are outweighed by the company's underappreciated growth drivers, particularly its move into AI cloud services via its Nvidia-powered Bitdeer AI Cloud and its advantageous low-cost hydropower agreements in Bhutan and the U.S. Bitdeer maintains a strong balance sheet with zero net debt, and analysts foresee a return to profitability with positive EPS projected for 2025 ($0.06) and 2026 ($1.05), which could support multiple expansion.