DCF Model Values Marvell at $90.57 Per Share
A valuation analysis published on January 18, 2026, estimates the intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) at $90.57 per share. The calculation, based on a two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, suggests the company is trading close to its fair value. Compared to the stock's price of $80.46 at the time of analysis, the model implies the stock is trading at an approximate 11% discount to its calculated intrinsic worth.
Valuation Rests on $77 Billion Equity Value and 11% Discount Rate
The valuation is derived from a detailed financial forecast projecting the company's free cash flow (FCF) over the next ten years. The present value of this 10-year cash flow (PVCF) amounts to $30 billion. The model's second stage applies a Gordon Growth formula to determine the terminal value, which is the cash flow generated beyond the forecast period. This results in a Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) of $47 billion.
Combining these figures produces a total equity value of $77 billion for Marvell. This valuation uses a discount rate of 11%, which reflects the cost of equity and is based on a levered beta of 1.632. This rate is a critical assumption, as it determines the present value of future cash flows and represents the return required by equity investors given the stock's volatility relative to the market.
Fair Value Estimate Lags 29% Behind Analyst Target of $117
The DCF-derived fair value of $90.57 stands in contrast to the more optimistic average analyst price target of $117 for Marvell, creating a 29% gap between the two figures. This divergence suggests that Wall Street analysts may be factoring in more aggressive growth assumptions or using different valuation metrics. While the DCF model provides a fundamentals-based floor, opportunities noted in a SWOT analysis—such as revenue forecast to grow faster than the broader U.S. market—may support the more bullish analyst outlook. However, the model also flags that Marvell's earnings are forecast to grow slower than the market, a potential risk for investors to consider.
Edgen Stock·Jan 18 2026, 12:19
