CLSA Lifts CNOOC Target to HKD32 on Higher Oil Price Outlook

Edgen Stock·Mar 27 2026, 03:17

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Key Takeaways

Brokerage firm CLSA has significantly increased its price target and earnings forecasts for CNOOC, signaling strong confidence in the energy giant's future profitability driven by expectations of higher oil prices. The upgrade occurs even as CNOOC's 2025 profits were dampened by lower realized energy prices, suggesting analysts are focused on the company's strong operational growth and future earnings potential.

Price Target Hike: CLSA raised its target price for CNOOC's H-shares to HKD32 from HKD22.8, citing revised oil price assumptions.
Earnings Upgrade: The firm boosted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026-2028 by 13% to 33%, anticipating improved profitability.
Fundamental Strength: The bullish forecast is supported by CNOOC's record 2025 production of 777.3 million boe and a declining all-in cost structure, which positions it for strong returns in a higher price environment.

CLSA Forecasts 33% EPS Jump, Lifts Target to HKD32

Brokerage and investment group CLSA issued a strong vote of confidence in CNOOC, raising its price target for the company's H-shares (00883.HK) to HKD32 from a previous HKD22.8. The firm maintained an 'Outperform' rating. This substantial upward revision is underpinned by new oil price assumptions that prompted CLSA to increase its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for CNOOC for the years 2026 to 2028 by a range of 13% to 33%. The target for CNOOC's A-shares (600938.SH) was also lifted, moving from RMB31.1 to RMB44.

Upgrade Defies 11.5% Profit Decline in 2025

The optimistic forecast from CLSA contrasts with CNOOC's recent financial performance, which was impacted by market volatility. For the full year 2025, CNOOC's net profit fell by 11.5% to RMB122.1 billion ($17.7 billion) compared to 2024. The decline was directly attributed to a 13.4% drop in the company's realized crude oil price, which averaged $66.47 per barrel in 2025, down from $76.75 the previous year. This result missed average analyst estimates, demonstrating the company's sensitivity to global energy price fluctuations.

Record 777.3 MMboe Production Underpins Bullish Outlook

Despite the profit dip caused by lower prices, CNOOC's operational metrics demonstrated significant strength and efficiency in 2025. The company achieved record-high net production of 777.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), an increase of 7% year-over-year. This was complemented by a 6.9% rise in proved reserves to 7.77 billion boe. Furthermore, CNOOC improved its cost efficiency, with its all-in production cost declining 2.2% to $27.90 per barrel of oil equivalent. For 2026, the company is targeting continued growth, with a production goal set between 780 and 800 MMboe, positioning it to capitalize on the higher oil prices forecasted by CLSA.