CICC Touts Chinese Stocks as Safe Haven as Iran Conflict Sparks 50% Oil Spike

Edgen Stock·Mar 27 2026, 00:22

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Key Takeaways

A global market sell-off and a near 50% surge in Brent crude prices, triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, has prompted investment bank CICC to identify a major shift in capital allocation that favors Chinese assets.

New Safe Havens: CICC argues that intensifying geopolitical risk is reshaping the definition of a "safe haven" asset, moving the focus to assets that enhance national resilience, thereby boosting the appeal of Chinese A-shares.
Oil Price Shock: The conflict, which began in late February 2026, has caused Brent crude prices to soar from approximately $70 to over $119 per barrel, disrupting traditional market correlations.
Strategic Pivot: The bank advises investors to shift from US tech stocks to global "hard assets," including energy, industrials, defense, and commodities, anticipating that emerging markets will outperform the US.

Brent Crude Surges Nearly 50% as Conflict Roils Global Markets

A joint US-Israeli military strike on Iran in late February 2026 has thrown global markets into disarray, causing a broad-based decline in risk assets and an unprecedented surge in energy prices. Brent crude has skyrocketed by nearly 50% since the conflict began, climbing from around $70 to over $119 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In a departure from typical crisis response, traditional safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and gold have also faltered, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising sharply as the market reprices global risk.

CICC Declares Chinese Assets the New Safe Haven

In a research report published on March 27, investment bank CICC posits that the escalating geopolitical instability marks a fundamental turning point for global capital. The firm argues the logic of "safety" has transformed; it no longer resides in traditional financial instruments but in assets that bolster a country's resilience to external shocks. Under this new framework, CICC contends that China's assets, particularly its A-shares, will increasingly be favored by international capital seeking genuine security, potentially fueling a long-term bull market.

Investors Advised to Pivot from US Tech to Global Hard Assets

CICC's analysis calls for a significant portfolio rebalancing, shifting capital away from previously dominant sectors like US technology and into "hard assets" that benefit from the new geopolitical reality. The bank recommends overweighting energy, raw materials, industrial manufacturing, and defense sectors globally. This aligns with CICC's "Great Reset" thesis, which anticipates a long-term rebalancing from financial capital to industrial assets. The report concludes that non-US markets, especially emerging economies with a focus on resource self-sufficiency, are positioned to outperform the US market.