Goldman Sachs Downgrades PayPal Amid Shifting Fintech Landscape and Macroeconomic Headwinds
PayPal Faces Downgrade as Fintech Sector Navigates Economic Headwinds
Goldman Sachs analyst Will Nance has downgraded PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) to a Sell rating from Neutral, setting a price forecast of $70. The downgrade, announced on October 13, 2025, reflects increasing investor caution as the fourth quarter approaches and highlights potential downside risks to PayPal's 2026 financial forecasts. This assessment extends to Marqeta, Inc. (NASDAQ:MQ), which also received a downgrade to Sell from Neutral due to similar concerns regarding its 2026 outlook.
Detailed Analysis of the Downgrade
Nance's analysis for PayPal points to a confluence of factors impeding near-term growth. Management commentary suggests that branded checkout growth is unlikely to accelerate, particularly when compared to last year's robust fourth-quarter performance. Without a significant rebound in its core business, the combination of "lapping 2026 tailwinds"—such as Braintree repricing benefits and stronger credit activity—and persistent interest rate pressure could lead to PayPal's total margin growth falling below current consensus estimates. Specifically, Nance projects PayPal's total margin growth for 2026 at approximately 3%, notably below the market consensus of ~5%.
Further contributing to this outlook are concerns over limited visibility for a near-term resurgence in branded checkout. Weak performance in Germany, disruptions in the U.S. stemming from tariffs and de minimis-related issues, and intensified competition are cited as key impediments. This marks a departure from earlier market optimism regarding stronger branded growth by year-end, leading to expectations of continued valuation pressure amidst the evolving online commerce landscape.
For Marqeta, the downgrade is primarily driven by renewed concerns over its heavy reliance on Block. The recent addition of a new issuer processing partner by Block could result in a 2% reduction in Marqeta's gross profit next year, signaling a long-term headwind given Block accounts for roughly half of Marqeta's volume and revenue. Broader pressures on the Total Addressable Market (TAM), including fintechs internalizing processing and the expansion of card programs by Stripe, also contribute to the cautious outlook.
Market Reaction and Broader Implications
The downgrade of PayPal by a major financial institution like Goldman Sachs is likely to exert further selling pressure on the stock in the short term. PayPal shares have already experienced a challenging year, decreasing approximately 19% year-to-date to around $70 in 2025. This situation underscores potential headwinds for the broader fintech sector, especially for companies heavily reliant on consumer spending, as macroeconomic pressures persist.
The global economy is currently characterized by persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and a nuanced shift in consumer behavior. Central banks have maintained or raised interest rates to combat inflation, making borrowing more expensive for both consumers and businesses. This directly dampens overall discretionary spending and elevates the cost of capital for tech firms, particularly those whose valuations are tied to long-term growth expectations.
Consumer Spending Trends and Valuation Context
While overall U.S. consumer spending shows resilience, largely attributed to higher-income households, less-affluent segments are experiencing greater financial strain. Analysis from PwC indicates that Gen Z consumers, often considered a less-affluent demographic, cut overall spending by 13% between January and April 2025, with plans to reduce holiday spending by 23% this year. This demographic exhibits a strong tendency towards deal hunting, with over 79% waiting for products to go on sale.
PayPal's 2024 revenue of approximately $31 billion, an increase of 9% year-over-year, fell short of the double-digit growth that previously defined its narrative. Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached nearly $1.6 trillion, but its growth has decelerated to single digits due to a slowdown in e-commerce expansion and intensifying competition. At its current price of $70 per share, PayPal trades at approximately 14x forward earnings and just under 3x forward sales, which is a more favorable valuation compared to some fintech rivals like Block.
However, if revenue growth remains subdued and margin improvements stagnate, investors may demand a steeper discount, potentially driving the stock price towards $50. Operating margins hover around 20%, but competitive pressures from entities like Apple Pay, Block's Cash App, and traditional banks, alongside escalating compliance costs, could impact profitability. The monetization of Venmo also continues to lag, limiting its contribution to revenue growth.
Expert Commentary and Looking Ahead
Nance's projected 3% transaction margin growth for PayPal in 2026, significantly below the ~5% consensus, suggests a potential valuation de-rating as competitive concerns in e-commerce persist. This outlook contrasts with a "GOOD" financial health rating and a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong operational efficiency, as per InvestingPro analysis.
While Goldman Sachs and Wolfe Research (which downgraded PayPal to Peerperform with a year-end 2026 fair value range of $70-$80) express caution, some analysts maintain a more optimistic view. Citizens has upheld its Market Outperform rating and a $100 price target for PayPal, citing the potential of its newly announced advertising platform, PayPal Ads Manager. This tool, aimed at helping small businesses create retail media networks, is expected to launch in early 2026, initially in the United States, followed by the UK and Germany.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor PayPal's ability to execute on its restructuring and cost-cutting measures, which have generated over $5 billion in free cash flow in 2024. The company's significant scale with 430 million active accounts and emerging growth engines such as Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), crypto integration, and small-business lending, present potential avenues for diversification. However, the broader economic environment, characterized by sticky inflation and a potentially softening U.S. labor market that may prompt Federal Reserve rate cuts, will continue to shape consumer spending patterns and the profitability outlook for the fintech sector.
Edgen Stock·Oct 13 2025, 20:41
