Boeing 777X Program Advances with Certification Progress and Increasing Orders

Boeing is accelerating the certification process for its 777X aircraft, driven by increased flight tests and rising orders, which is expected to positively impact production, supply chain stability, and future profitability.

U.S. aerospace giant Boeing (NYSE: BA) is seeing accelerated progress in the certification process for its 777X aircraft. Driven by increased flight tests and rising orders, this momentum is anticipated to positively impact production, enhance supply chain stability, and bolster the company's future profitability.

The 777X Program: Progress and Milestones

The 777X program has marked significant advancements. A fifth test aircraft has joined the fleet, actively contributing to and accelerating certification efforts. Key regulatory milestones include Boeing receiving Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) in July 2024, followed by the FAA's approval for TIA Phase 2D in August 2025. Flight testing, which had been temporarily halted in August 2024 due to issues with thrust links, successfully resumed in January 2025, indicating resolution of prior technical hurdles.

While the program has faced delays and incurred substantial costs—including a $6.5 billion charge in Q4 2020 and temporary production halts—Boeing is now better aligning with the FAA on its path toward service entry. Deliveries for the 777-9 variant are now expected in 2026. However, the 777-8F freighter variant is delayed until 2028, and the 777-8 passenger variant is not projected for delivery before 2030.

Financially, the inventory build for the 777X has been ramping up, with an increase of $2.4 billion across 2024, an $800 million increase in Q1 2025, and a $900 million increase in Q2 2025. This reflects ongoing investment in the program as it moves towards production readiness.

Analysis of Investor Reaction and Financial Outlook

The discernible progress in the 777X program has fueled a bullish sentiment among investors. Boeing's stock (BA) has demonstrated robust performance, surging 32.12% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting investor optimism regarding the company's trajectory and the potential of its widebody aircraft portfolio.

Market analysts are increasingly recognizing the 777X as a significant future free cash flow (FCF) driver for Boeing. Wolfe Research highlights that while investor focus has largely been on the MAX and 787 programs, the 777X is an underappreciated asset poised to shift from a "burn" to a "source" of FCF.

Wolfe Research suggests that Boeing's (NYSE: BA) 777X program, often underestimated, could become a significant free cash flow (FCF) driver later this decade, potentially shifting from a "$3–4B burn to $2–3B source in 2030."

This shift, contingent on certification certainty, is seen as a pivotal turning point for the program, with the increasing confidence in certification removing "much of the external system risk."

Broader Context and Strategic Implications

The original Boeing 777 was a notable commercial and financial success for the company, and the 777X is now approaching a similar inflection point despite its extended and costly development phase. A successful certification is expected to allow Boeing to re-establish its commanding market advantage in the widebody segment over Airbus.

Analysis suggests that the distinct mission profiles of aircraft like the 787/A330 and the 777X/A350 imply less direct price competition between these categories. This, coupled with strong market demand, could enable Boeing to achieve historically attractive widebody margins, estimated at around 20%. Such margins could add an estimated "$2–3 billion annually" from the 777X by the end of the decade.

The program's order backlog underscores this potential. The 777X program has a total of 652 orders and order intentions. Recent order intentions announced subsequent to July 2025 include commitments for 20 Boeing 777-9s and 8 Boeing 777-8Fs from Korean Airlines, alongside 14 orders from Cathay Pacific. These recent additions bring the year-to-date total for 2025 to 112 units, positioning 2025 as the third-best year for the program's order intake.

Looking Ahead

While significant progress has been made, certain risks persist, including the potential for new discoveries during the final certification stages and challenges associated with production ramp-up. However, the consistent advancement in flight testing, regulatory approvals, and growing order book indicate a strong trajectory for the 777X.

In the coming months, market participants will closely monitor further certification milestones, delivery schedules, and the rate at which Boeing can scale its production to meet demand. The 777X is poised to become a critical component of Boeing's future revenue streams and market leadership in the widebody aircraft segment.

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[1] Boeing 777X Surprises With Strong Momentum[2] 777X the overlooked FCF catalyst in Boeing portfolio: Wolfe - Investing.com UK[3] Embraer E2 Finally Breaks Into The U.S. Market Following 50 Firm Orders +50 Purchase Rights from ULCC Avelo Airlines - Leeham News and Analysis

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