Edgen Stock·Nov 22 2025, 01:37
[1] Amazon layoffs 2025: Over California employees to lose ... (https://www.kron4.com/news/technology-ai/amaz ...)[2] Amazon layoffs hit software engineers hardest in Washington (https://www.geekwire.com/2025/amazon-layoffs- ...)[3] Amazon's mass layoffs to impact 1450 California jobs (https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/amaz ...)
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Nov 21 2025, 20:19
Bill Ackman Flags Crypto Contagion Risk for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Amid New FHFA Crypto Mandate
## Executive Summary A confluence of regulatory directives and market observations has placed U.S. housing finance giants **Fannie Mae** and **Freddie Mac** at the center of a new, complex risk analysis involving the cryptocurrency market. Investor **Bill Ackman** has publicly warned that turmoil in the digital asset space is creating downward pressure on the stocks of these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) due to forced liquidations by a common investor base. This warning comes as the **Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)** has mandated that the GSEs develop proposals to integrate cryptocurrency as a potential asset for mortgage reserves, signaling a deeper, though uncertain, entanglement between traditional housing finance and the volatile crypto sector. ## The Event in Detail Two distinct but related events are shaping the narrative. First, **Bill Ackman**, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, identified a non-fundamental driver for the recent stock price declines in **Fannie Mae** and **Freddie Mac**. He posits that a segment of investors holds positions in both cryptocurrencies and GSE stocks. As volatility in the crypto market triggers margin calls and forced selling, these investors are compelled to liquidate other assets, including their GSE holdings, to cover their positions. This creates a contagion effect, where the stock prices of the housing giants are impacted by sell-offs in an entirely separate and unregulated asset class. Second, in a directive signed on June 25, 2025, the **FHFA** ordered both **Fannie Mae** and **Freddie Mac** to prepare formal proposals for considering cryptocurrency as an asset for reserves in their single-family mortgage loan risk assessments. Crucially, the order specifies this should be done without requiring the conversion of the cryptocurrency to U.S. dollars. This regulatory push forces the institutions to formally evaluate how they can incorporate digital assets directly onto their risk frameworks. ## Market Implications The immediate implication, as highlighted by **Ackman**, is the introduction of a new volatility vector for GSE stocks. Investors must now account for risks stemming from the crypto market, which are unrelated to the underlying performance of the U.S. housing market. This hidden correlation complicates risk modeling for shareholders. Longer-term, the **FHFA** directive could have systemic implications. By formally sanctioning cryptocurrency as a potential reserve asset for mortgage underwriting, the U.S. housing finance system becomes directly exposed to the well-documented volatility of digital assets. While the **FHFA** has stipulated that the GSEs must consider "additional risk mitigants" and "adjustments for market volatility," the framework for such controls is not yet defined, introducing significant uncertainty. The move represents a potential institutional embrace of crypto but also a formal link between the stability of the housing market and the speculative nature of digital currencies. ## Expert Commentary Bill Ackman articulated the core issue by pointing to the correlated shareholder base. His analysis suggests that the sell-off is not a reflection of the GSEs' intrinsic value but rather a technical market phenomenon driven by external financial distress. > "Cryptocurrency market's forced liquidation is causing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's stock sell-off. The correlation is hidden in the shareholder base, where some investors hold both crypto and the two government-sponsored enterprises' stocks." Meanwhile, the **FHFA**'s directive has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers. Senators have raised concerns over the lack of transparency in the process, questioning how the agency assessed the risks and benefits and how it plans to gather stakeholder feedback before approving any proposals from **Fannie Mae** and **Freddie Mac**. ## Broader Context This situation highlights the growing pains of integrating digital assets into the traditional financial system (TradFi). On one hand, regulatory bodies like the **FHFA** are beginning to explore pathways for crypto adoption in highly regulated sectors. On the other hand, market experts like **Ackman** are flagging the immediate, real-world consequences of cross-market contagion. The case of **Fannie Mae** and **Freddie Mac** serves as a critical case study in the unforeseen risks that emerge as the once-separate worlds of crypto and traditional finance continue to merge. While **Ackman** has historically been a bull on the long-term prospects of the GSEs, his recent warning underscores a new and potent risk factor that investors and regulators must now confront.
Nov 21 2025, 20:08
Lam Research Stock Declines Despite Strong Q1 Earnings and Revenue Beat
## Executive Summary **Lam Research (LRCX)** has reported record financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) surpassing analyst expectations. The company posted revenues of $5.32 billion and a non-GAAP EPS of $1.26. However, this strong performance has been met with a negative market reaction, as the company's stock has declined 5.4% since the earnings announcement. This divergence suggests investor concerns regarding slowing growth momentum and future revenue composition, particularly concerning its operations in China. ## The Event in Detail For its first quarter of fiscal 2026, Lam Research announced revenues of $5.32 billion, a figure that exceeded consensus estimates by 2% and marked a 28% increase from the $4.17 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. This performance represents the company's third consecutive quarter with sales exceeding the $5 billion threshold. Non-GAAP earnings stood at $1.26 per share, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.25 by 4.1% and representing a 46.5% increase year-over-year. Despite these strong top- and bottom-line beats, the year-over-year revenue growth rate of 27.6% indicates a slowdown from the 33.6% pace recorded in the preceding quarter. ## Market Implications The decline in Lam Research's stock price, despite the positive earnings report, points to underlying investor apprehension. The primary factor appears to be the deceleration in revenue growth, which may signal that the company's rapid expansion is moderating. Furthermore, the company's guidance regarding its China operations is a significant factor. Management stated an expectation for the China region to constitute less than 30% of overall revenues in the 2026 calendar year, a disclosure that could be interpreted as a potential headwind given the region's importance to the semiconductor market. The stock's "wobble" post-announcement reflects this uncertainty as the market digests the sustainability of its multi-billion dollar revenue streak against a complex geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. ## Expert Commentary Despite the recent stock decline, analyst sentiment from some sectors remains positive. **Zacks Investment Research** currently assigns Lam Research a "Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)." Their analysis projects continued strength, with consensus estimates for the company’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implying year-over-year increases of approximately 14% and 15.2%, respectively. This bullish outlook, rooted in fundamental analysis, contrasts sharply with the immediate market sentiment. Commentary from retail investors on platforms like Stocktwits has been mixed, with some expressing frustration that positive fundamentals are not being reflected in the stock price. ## Broader Context Lam Research operates in the highly competitive semiconductor equipment market. Its performance and strategic decisions are benchmarked against major competitors such as **Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)** and **KLA Corporation (KLAC)**. The entire sector is sensitive to global supply chain dynamics, capital expenditure cycles of major chipmakers, and international trade policies. Lam's explicit guidance on reducing its revenue dependency on China reflects a broader strategic realignment occurring across the industry in response to geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions. The market's reaction to Lam's report serves as a barometer for how investors are weighing strong current performance against potential future risks in the semiconductor landscape.
Nov 21 2025, 18:20
U.S. October Layoffs Reach 22-Year High, Driven by AI and Cost-Cutting Measures
## Executive Summary The U.S. labor market experienced a significant shock in October 2025, with job cuts surging to the highest level for the month in 22 years. Data from outplacement firm **Challenger, Gray & Christmas** reveals that companies announced 153,074 layoffs, a figure nearly triple that of the previous year. This trend is driven by aggressive corporate cost-cutting and the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence, creating new headwinds for the economy. Concurrently, unemployment among college-educated individuals has reached a record high, signaling a structural shift in the labor force that extends beyond cyclical economic pressures. ## The Event in Detail According to the report, October's job cuts represent a 183% increase from September 2025 and a 175% rise compared to October 2024. The technology and warehousing sectors were the primary drivers of these reductions. Year-to-date job cuts for 2025 are at their highest level since the pandemic-driven layoffs of 2020. The retail sector has also been severely affected, announcing 88,664 cuts in the first ten months of the year, a 145% increase from the same period in the previous year. A particularly concerning trend is the rising unemployment among educated professionals. In September, more than 1.9 million unemployed Americans aged 25 and over held at least a bachelor's degree. This cohort now constitutes over a quarter of the total unemployed population and more than 30% of the long-term unemployed, the highest proportion on record. ## Market Implications The sharp increase in layoffs, especially when juxtaposed with two recent interest rate cuts by the **Federal Reserve**, suggests a weakening labor market that may not respond as expected to monetary easing. The data points to a potential increase in market volatility as investors digest the dual impact of corporate restructuring and AI-driven job displacement. Furthermore, seasonal hiring plans are at their lowest since **Challenger, Gray & Christmas** began tracking the metric in 2012, with only 372,520 new jobs anticipated. This subdued forecast indicates that corporations are adopting a cautious stance, which could dampen consumer spending and overall economic growth in the coming quarters. ## Expert Commentary Andy Challenger, the chief revenue officer at **Challenger, Gray & Christmas**, provided historical context for the current disruption. > It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive. Challenger also issued a warning regarding the upcoming holiday season, stating, "It's possible with rate cuts and a strong showing in November, companies may make a late season push for employees, but at this point, we do not expect a strong seasonal hiring environment in 2025." ## Broader Context The current labor market dynamics reflect a deeper, structural transformation. The percentage of Americans holding a bachelor's degree or higher has risen from 25.6% in 2000 to 37.5% today. While this indicates a more educated workforce, it also means that higher-skilled workers are increasingly competing for roles that are being redefined or eliminated by technology. The accelerated adoption of **Artificial Intelligence** is no longer a futuristic concept but a present-day reality impacting corporate strategy and employment. As companies leverage AI to enhance productivity and reduce costs, the nature of work is fundamentally changing, creating significant displacement even in fields that previously seemed insulated from automation.