XRP falls 3.2% to $1.13 as Super Guppy compression points to cooldown

XRP is trading at a critical technical juncture as its Super Guppy indicator shifts into compression mode and a potential death cross looms on the weekly chart.

XRP fell 3.2% to $1.13 as of July 5, with trading volume contracting 43.3% to $1.14 billion, CoinMarketCap data shows.

"The weekly chart is showing a clear message — XRP is no longer in full impulse mode," Egrag Crypto, a closely followed market analyst, said. "The Super Guppy is compressing, which means the market is in a macro retest or cooldown phase."

The Super Guppy indicator on the weekly timeframe has shifted from a strong green expansion phase into a mixed gray compression zone, showing fading upward momentum. Egrag identified the $0.80 to $1.10 range as the critical support band that must hold to preserve the broader bullish structure. A breakdown below that zone would damage the technical formation, he said.

The $1.20 level — where the 200-week simple moving average currently sits — represents the immediate resistance. If XRP reclaims that level, it could reduce downside risk and open a path toward $2, according to multiple analysts tracking the token.

Death Cross Looms on Weekly Chart

Technical analyst ChartNerd warned that XRP is approaching a death cross between the 20-week exponential moving average and the 200-week simple moving average — a pattern that has preceded bearish phases in prior cycles. The 200-week SMA at $1.20 could flip from a historical support floor into a supply ceiling during future rallies, he said.

ChartNerd compared the current setup to two historical precedents. In 2022, XRP bottomed one week after the death cross formed. During the 2018-2020 bear cycle, the bottom took six months to materialize. Based on those patterns, he projected a possible cycle low between June and the end of 2026 at $0.90 or $0.70.

Symmetrical Triangle Nears Apex

Separately, blockchain analytics provider XRP Update identified a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern on XRP's price chart, with converging trendlines approaching their apex. A decisive break above the upper resistance line with strong volume would confirm a bullish breakout, with potential targets near $2 and eventually $3.

Cryptollica, another market analyst, noted that XRP's relative strength index has reached its most oversold reading in the token's 13-year history. "This is not where the crowd gets excited. This is where most gives up before the real move begins," he said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.