Why Oil Is Not $150 a Barrel After a 14 Million Barrel Shock

Speculation that the Iran conflict will be short-lived is keeping a lid on oil prices, but dwindling global inventories suggest a supply crunch is imminent.

Despite a historic 14 million barrel-per-day supply disruption following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, West Texas Intermediate crude has remained stubbornly below analyst forecasts, trading around $110 a barrel. The price, while up 20 percent in the last two weeks, is far from the $150-plus predictions many saw as a certainty after the largest oil supply shock in history.

“I think the White House has been very successful in convincing a corner of the market that the war will be over soon,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets and a former CIA analyst.

The relative price calm comes even as U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 6.2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, with stockpiles of gasoline and distillates also falling sharply. The market’s muted reaction contrasts with the surge to $120 a barrel in 2022, when a threatened, but not realized, 3 million barrel-per-day loss from Russia roiled markets.

The primary factor keeping prices in check is a market betting on a swift de-escalation, a sentiment fueled by political rhetoric. However, with global supply buffers dwindling, analysts warn that the physical market reality of a severe supply shortage is not being fully priced in, setting the stage for a potential price spike in the coming months.

The Anatomy of a Non-Spike

The math behind the current oil price is confounding traders. The 14 million barrel-per-day shortage from the Hormuz shutdown should have sent prices soaring, with some analysts expecting a move above $200. Instead, a combination of pre-existing supply cushions and significant demand destruction has temporarily absorbed the shock.

Before the conflict, the oil market was in a state of oversupply, leaving about 580 million barrels of crude in storage on tankers and in warehouses, according to JPMorgan. This, combined with releases from strategic reserves, plugged the supply gap by about 8 million barrels a day.

At the same time, demand has fallen by at least 4.3 million barrels per day, according to JPMorgan—a larger drop than was seen during the 2009 global financial crisis. This demand destruction is not just from price-sensitive consumers, but from entire regions in the Middle East and Asia that are physically running out of oil and fuel, forcing factory shutdowns and reduced consumption.

The Speculation Effect

Even with these factors, the numbers do not fully account for the 14 million barrel-per-day deficit. The missing piece, according to market analysts, is speculation. Speculative traders, who represent about 11 percent of open interest in crude contracts, are betting heavily that the conflict will end quickly.

This view has been encouraged by political statements, including a recent announcement by former U.S. President Donald Trump that hostilities have “terminated,” which coincided with a drop in crude prices. This political maneuvering has, for now, created a disconnect between market price and physical reality.

That reality is beginning to bite. The inventory shock absorbers are dwindling fast, with only a few months of buffer remaining, according to analysts. “One thing for certain is there is a global supply crunch coming, and it’s not being fully priced in,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. This looming shortage threatens to send a shockwave through the global economy, impacting everything from fuel prices to the cost of plastics. The resulting inflation concerns and "risk-off" sentiment are also putting downward pressure on volatile assets like Bitcoin, as investors move capital to safer havens.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.