Walmart Inc. (WMT) is set to report its fiscal first-quarter results on Thursday, with its stock performance of more than a 20 percent gain in 2026 facing a key test amid investor concerns over consumer spending and inflation.
“We believe Walmart’s focus on value and convenience, combined with strong execution, should drive profitable market share gains,” Telsey Advisory Group’s Joe Feldman said in a note to clients.
Investors will be watching to see if the retail giant meets or exceeds consensus estimates. The company last guided for Q1 revenue to grow 3.5 to 4.5 percent with adjusted earnings per share of $0.63 to $0.65.
The report is the first under new CEO John Furner and comes as the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 45 times. This elevated valuation has created a high bar for the results, with any signs of weakness in high-margin areas like advertising or e-commerce potentially triggering a selloff.
Despite the valuation concerns, Walmart’s business has shown significant momentum. In its fiscal fourth quarter, global e-commerce sales grew 24 percent, while its advertising business climbed 37 percent. These higher-margin segments helped drive a 10.5 percent increase in adjusted operating income, more than double the pace of revenue.
However, the company faces headwinds from a "somewhat unstable" macroeconomic backdrop, according to CFO John David Rainey. Elevated gas prices and persistent inflation could be straining the company's core lower-income shoppers. In its last report, Walmart gave a conservative full-year forecast for revenue growth of 3.5 to 4.5 percent, which disappointed some analysts.
The upcoming report will serve as a critical barometer for the health of the US consumer. The company's commentary on spending trends and any update to its full-year guidance will be more important than the quarterly numbers themselves. Investors will watch the earnings call on Thursday for details on margin performance and the outlook for the rest of the year.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
