Key Takeaways:
The three largest payment networks in the US are building a stablecoin that could break the duopoly Circle and Tether have held over the $325 billion market.
Stripe, Visa and Mastercard are developing a joint stablecoin platform designed to compete directly with USDC and USDT, according to a person familiar with the plans. The move brings the combined merchant reach of the three payment giants against two issuers that currently control 80 percent of the stablecoin market, per DefiLlama data.
"The existing stablecoin market is dominated by two players who have built their businesses outside the traditional payment rail system," said a senior executive at one of the participating firms, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are not yet public. "What we are building is designed to be interoperable with existing card networks, settlement systems and regulatory frameworks from day one."
The stablecoin market has swelled to $325 billion in total supply, with Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC commanding the vast majority. Stablecoins processed roughly $28 trillion in real economic volume in 2025, according to industry estimates, and Chainalysis projects adjusted volume could reach $719 trillion by 2035. Cross-border payments alone represent a $179 trillion market that still relies on correspondent banking rails from the 1980s, with fees ranging from 5 basis points to more than 1,000.
The entry of Visa, Mastercard and Stripe represents an existential threat to Circle and Tether's dominance. The three payment networks collectively touch tens of millions of merchants and process trillions of dollars annually — Stripe alone handled $1.9 trillion in payment volume in 2025, up 34 percent from the prior year, according to the Financial Times. Mastercard has already signaled its direction with the launch of Agent Pay for Machines, an AI-powered payments network supporting stablecoin settlement and multi-rail payment flows, backed by more than 30 partners including Coinbase, Solana Foundation and Stripe.
Why the incumbents are vulnerable
Circle and Tether built their businesses on first-mover advantage and liquidity network effects, but they lack the distribution infrastructure that Visa, Mastercard and Stripe have spent decades building. Tether has faced persistent questions about the composition of its reserves, while Circle went public in 2025 via an IPO that gave USDC a market benchmark but also exposed the business to quarterly earnings scrutiny.
Stripe's acquisition of Bridge for $1.1 billion in February 2025 gave the company ownership of stablecoin infrastructure for payments, issuing and cross-border movement. Bridge payment volumes more than quadrupled last year, the Financial Times reported. Visa has already processed billions of dollars in stablecoin settlement transactions, and Mastercard acquired BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure provider, to deepen its capabilities.
The three companies are betting that merchants and financial institutions will prefer a stablecoin issued by regulated payment networks with existing compliance infrastructure, rather than crypto-native issuers. Noah, a European stablecoin infrastructure firm that has closed double-digit million-dollar annual recurring revenue contracts across 160 countries, has demonstrated that institutional demand for compliant stablecoin rails is strong — particularly in markets where local banking relationships are hard to build.
What comes next
A joint stablecoin from Visa, Mastercard and Stripe would need to navigate licensing frameworks across multiple jurisdictions, establish custody relationships and build liquidity partnerships. The GENIUS Act in the US has turned stablecoin regulation into a demand driver, with institutional entry begetting more institutional entry. Europe's MiCA framework imposes strict reserve and transparency requirements that favor well-capitalized entrants over smaller issuers.
Circle's USDC has a market capitalization of roughly $56 billion as of June 2026, while Tether's USDT stands at about $204 billion, per DefiLlama. Even a modest capture of new issuance volume by the payment giants' stablecoin would pressure the incumbents' fee revenue and network effects. Citi's bull case has the total stablecoin market reaching $4 trillion by 2030, suggesting there is room for multiple winners — but the window for incumbents to build a moat is narrowing.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
