US Considers Risky Seizure of 1,000 Pounds of Uranium
President Trump is weighing a high-risk military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, a move designed to permanently halt the country's nuclear weapons ambitions. U.S. officials confirm the president has not yet made a decision but remains open to the idea. Before a series of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, Iran was believed to possess over 400 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium and nearly 200 kilograms of 20% fissile material, primarily at its Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites.
Executing the seizure would be exceptionally dangerous. Former military officers warn the mission would require elite special operations teams to secure multiple sites under fire, excavate material, and transport it out of the country over several days. Retired Gen. Joseph Votel characterized the plan as "not a quick in and out kind of deal." In response, the Pentagon is preparing a range of options for the president, which includes the potential deployment of an additional 10,000 ground troops to the region.
Oil Markets Weaken as S&P 500 Slides 7.3%
Financial markets are showing clear signs of stress from the month-long conflict. Since hostilities began on February 28, the S&P 500 has fallen 7.3%, while the energy sector has climbed 12.6%. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude has risen from $67 to over $99 per barrel, raising the average U.S. gasoline price to $3.98 per gallon from $2.98. The perceived odds of a 2026 U.S. recession have increased from 22% to 37%.
A brief market reprieve occurred Friday when oil prices dipped after President Trump announced Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude declined 1.92% to $105.94 a barrel on the news. However, analysts caution against optimism, with Rystad Energy describing the global oil system as shifting from "buffered to fragile." The firm estimates the conflict has disrupted 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flows and removed nearly 500 million barrels of total liquids from the market.
Houthi Threats Risk Second Chokepoint Crisis
The conflict's financial risks are magnified by its potential to spread across the Middle East. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement has announced it is militarily prepared to join the war in support of Tehran, raising the prospect of a new front opening in a critical global waterway. Such an intervention would directly threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is just 18 miles wide at its narrowest point.
An attack on this chokepoint would severely disrupt global trade and energy supplies moving toward the Suez Canal. With Iran already controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a Houthi blockade of the Bab al-Mandab would create a dual crisis, choking off two of the world's most important maritime arteries. This would compound existing supply chain disruptions and likely drive oil prices and global inflation significantly higher.
