Key Takeaways:
The Trump administration revoked temporary waivers allowing Iranian oil sales less than three weeks after issuing them, following a second projectile attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that sent Hong Kong-listed energy stocks surging more than 4%.
"The MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based," a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences."
The UK Maritime Trade Operations center confirmed a tanker was struck on its port side near Limah, Oman, late Monday, igniting a fire that has since been extinguished. Security consultancy Vanguard Tech reported the attack involved a projectile, while EOS Risk Group said a second vessel, the LNG carrier Al Rekayyat, may also have been hit. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB confirmed one attack, saying the tanker was targeted after "repeated warnings" for using an unapproved route.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of global oil and natural gas trade. Hong Kong-listed CNOOC Ltd. jumped 4.17%, PetroChina Co. climbed 3.91% and China Oilfield Services Ltd. added 2.23% on Tuesday as traders priced in a widening supply risk premium. Over the July 4-5 weekend, Windward data showed nearly 80 transits through the waterway — roughly two-thirds of pre-conflict volumes — before the latest escalation.
Iran's joint military command warned last Thursday that all oil tankers must use its designated routes, threatening "an immediate and forceful response" for any deviation. The warning came after a 60-day interim deal between Washington and Tehran that allowed free passage without charges expired. Iran now insists it must control vessel routing and levy fees, a demand the US and Gulf Arab states have rejected.
The attacks mark the most serious disruption since the war that began Feb. 28, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His funeral in Qom drew hundreds of thousands of mourners Tuesday, with some calling for the death of President Donald Trump. Trump responded Monday by warning Iran to "make a deal or we're going to finish the job," adding that the US could "knock down their bridges in one hour."
The last time Iran targeted commercial shipping in the strait, the US launched retaliatory strikes that triggered Iranian attacks on Gulf Arab states, escalating into a broader regional conflict. Tanker flows have already slowed to a trickle, according to HFI Research, with inbound rates insufficient to alter production shut-in math. Kpler data showed 108 ships crossed using various routes over the weekend, but the renewed attacks threaten to reverse the fragile recovery in traffic.
Iran's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday it was "diligently fulfilling its commitments" under the MOU and urged shipping companies to "refrain from any actions that contradict provisions of the agreement." The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control revoked the general license authorizing Iranian oil sales, a move that effectively reimposes sanctions that had been temporarily suspended as part of negotiations to fully reopen the strait.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
