US political risk rises as Trump allies seize ballots in 3 states

The Trump administration is intensifying its search for 2020 election fraud, with federal and local law enforcement seizing ballots and voting machines in at least three states. The moves, driven by allies who have promoted baseless claims of widespread fraud, are escalating political conflict and raising investor concerns about US political stability just months before the critical 2026 midterm elections.

"It complicates things incredibly," said David Becker, a former Justice Department attorney who heads the Center for Election Innovation & Research. "Riverside is a great example, where you’ve got a candidate for governor who appears to be politicizing a confirmed landslide election."

In California, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican candidate for governor, seized 650,000 ballots from a 2025 special election. In Georgia, the FBI took 700 boxes of 2020 election records from Fulton County in January. Federal officials also confiscated voting machines in Puerto Rico, while in Arizona's Maricopa County, the recorder has referred more than 200 individuals for prosecution over suspicions of noncitizen voting.

These actions create significant legal and political uncertainty, threatening to undermine public confidence in the electoral process. California's Attorney General is suing to halt the Riverside probe, arguing it "sets a dangerous precedent," while a federal judge is weighing whether the Justice Department overstepped in its Georgia seizure. The outcome of these clashes could set the stage for further challenges and potential disruptions to the upcoming midterm elections.

Probes Driven by Debunked Claims

The wave of investigations stems from efforts by President Trump and his supporters to overturn his 2020 election loss. The probes are often initiated based on allegations from activist groups that have been refuted by state and local election officials. In Riverside, Sheriff Bianco's seizure was prompted by a local group's claim of a 40,000-vote discrepancy, a figure the county registrar says is actually 103. The ballot measure in question passed in the county by more than 80,000 votes.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has filed a lawsuit to stop Bianco's investigation, which he called a "misuse of law enforcement authority" that "threatens to sow distrust." Bianco, a former member of the Oath Keepers militia who endorsed Trump for president in a video while in uniform, has defended his actions as a "fact-finding mission."

The situation mirrors events in Fulton County, Georgia, where the FBI's seizure of 2020 ballots was based on a referral from Kurt Olsen, a lawyer central to Trump's "Stop the Steal" efforts who now serves as the White House's director of election security. Fulton County is suing the Justice Department for the return of the ballots, arguing in court that the warrant was based on "incoherent" and debunked allegations.

A Nationalized Strategy

These local-level actions are part of a broader, coordinated strategy directed from within the Trump administration. Attorney General Pam Bondi has quietly authorized U.S. Attorney Dan Bishop, who voted against certifying the 2020 election, to lead election-related probes nationwide. The administration is also stocked with officials who have publicly questioned the legitimacy of past elections.

The effort is unfolding as the administration pushes Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, a package of restrictive voting laws. Critics, citing a trial run in Missouri, argue the law's verification methods could disenfranchise more than 20 million eligible voters.

For investors, the escalating challenges to settled election results introduce a new layer of domestic political risk. The probes threaten to disrupt the 2026 midterm elections, potentially leading to contested results and increased market volatility. The last time the U.S. faced a comparable level of internal conflict over election integrity was in the months following the 2020 election, a period that saw a spike in market volatility and a temporary dip in US equities as the transition of power was challenged. The current campaign of ballot seizures suggests a willingness to use law enforcement powers to amplify political disputes, a development that could further erode investor confidence in U.S. institutional stability.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.