A US-Iran ceasefire deal is on the brink of collapse less than 24 hours after its announcement, as President Trump disavows a previously accepted Iranian framework for talks, renewing market uncertainty.
Back
Back
US-Iran Ceasefire Stumbles as Trump Rejects 10-Point Plan
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread after President Trump, in a stunning reversal, rejected Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for talks less than 24 hours after appearing to accept it. The move threatens to unravel the two-week truce, sending oil prices fluctuating and injecting fresh volatility into markets that had just begun to price in a de-escalation.
"To think that Trump would ever accept the Iranian wish list as a deal is completely absurd," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, stating the proposal had been "literally thrown in the trash can."
The reversal came after an initial market rally on the ceasefire news, which saw US stocks rise and oil prices dip below $95 a barrel. Iran has warned its Supreme Leader will not approve the agreement unless the "10-point plan" is the foundation for negotiations. Tehran alleges three key violations have already occurred, including continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon, which Iran and mediator Pakistan understood to be covered by the truce.
At stake is the stability of a region that handles over 20 percent of global oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Should the ceasefire collapse, a return to conflict could trigger a severe oil price shock, compounding inflationary pressures on a US economy already grappling with a nearly 40 percent rise in domestic gasoline prices and risking what Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warned could be a recession.
A Deal Undone by Details
President Trump’s whiplash-inducing reversal on the ceasefire terms has thrown upcoming negotiations into chaos. Initially, Trump had acknowledged receipt of Iran's 10-point plan on social media, calling it a "viable basis for starting a negotiation." By Wednesday, that sentiment was history. The White House declared the US "15-point proposal" would be the only framework, a plan Iran has already rejected.
The Iranian plan includes several items Washington considers red lines, such as shared control over the Strait of Hormuz and the acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment activities. In contrast, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated unequivocally that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon, where Israeli forces continue to engage Hezbollah. This directly contradicts the understanding of Iran and Pakistan, whose Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced the truce included "all places, including Lebanon."
Pressure and Politics Drive the Deal
The initial ceasefire was born from a confluence of pressures on the Trump administration. After 40 days of large-scale air strikes, Iran's military demonstrated unexpected resilience, inflicting losses on US assets. The economic blowback was also becoming acute, with soaring gas prices eroding consumer confidence and Trump's own approval rating falling to 35 percent, a low since his return to the White House. Republican Senator Rand Paul warned that sustained high oil prices could lead to a "catastrophic failure" for the GOP in the upcoming midterm elections.
"The two weeks are likely to be full of variables," said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy for President Clinton, highlighting the deep-seated mistrust and divergent goals. The structure of the deal, which defers the most contentious issues, mirrors a previous agreement in Gaza. As Professor Ding Long of the Shanghai International Studies University noted, that experience shows such an approach "often severely restricts subsequent progress."
What's Next
Despite the public acrimony, delegations are still scheduled to meet in Islamabad this weekend, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif having formally invited both parties for talks starting on the 10th. The US delegation is expected to include Vice President Vance and Jared Kushner, while Iran's will be led by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Analysts, however, remain deeply skeptical. James Acton, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the initial US acceptance of Iran's terms a "huge concession," while Richard Fontaine of the Center for a New American Security described the Iranian proposal as a "pre-war wish list." The immediate future of the ceasefire, and the direction of oil markets, now hinges on whether the two sides can even agree on what to talk about.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Features
Resources
© 2026 Finture Development Limited. All rights reserved