The two-month-old war with Iran has offered US adversaries a rare, real-time window into the capabilities and constraints of American military power, with data showing the Pentagon has expended more than half its inventory of some critical missiles. The conflict serves as a live-fire laboratory for China, Russia, and North Korea, revealing both the potency of new US weapons and the significant industrial strain of a modern conflict.
"The war is exposing a lot of big problems for the U.S. military," said Chris H. Park, co-author of a new report on munition use from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "We just need a lot of stuff."
The CSIS report estimates that of seven key US munitions used in the Iran conflict, four may have seen more than half of their pre-war inventories depleted. The US has struck over 13,000 targets since Operation Epic Fury began on Feb. 28, but the high expenditure rate raises questions about readiness for other potential conflicts. Fully replacing the offensive and defensive missiles could take up to six years, according to separate analysis.
The conflict has provided a valuable case study for America's strategic competitors. For China, the war has highlighted the effectiveness of low-cost drones against heavily fortified assets. "I think they see the power of small, low-cost munitions," Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of US forces in the Pacific, told Congress. Russia is gaining direct insight into how American weapons perform against Iranian arms that share similar technology to its own, lessons it can apply in Ukraine.
Adversaries Adapt Strategies
The war is already shaping the strategic calculus in Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang. China, which has seen some of its own technology reverse-engineered by Iran, is closely studying how to counter advanced American weapons. Russia has ramped up its own drone and missile production, with its war economy now in "high gear," according to Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's top military commander.
For North Korea, the conflict reinforces the ultimate value of a nuclear deterrent. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un said in a recent speech that the situation "clearly proves how just the strategic options and decisions of our state were in...perpetuating our nuclear possession." This sentiment was echoed by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a congressional hearing, who pointed to Pyongyang's success in developing a nuclear arsenal as a reason for taking pre-emptive action against Tehran. "North Korea is the lesson," Hegseth said.
The high-intensity conflict has also revealed vulnerabilities in high-end US defensive systems. According to two people with knowledge of the situation, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) radars in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates were lost to Iranian drones, a development that likely caught Moscow's attention.
Industrial Base Under Pressure
The war has cost $25 billion to date, according to Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst III, with the Defense Department expected to request $200 billion in supplemental funding. The rapid drawdown of munitions like Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot interceptors highlights the limitations of the US defense industrial base.
"The United States has enough munitions to fight this war if it starts up again," said retired Col. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS and an author of the report. "But the risk is in a future war with China, where inventory levels are far below where war planners would like them to be."
The conflict's exposure of these industrial and strategic vulnerabilities is a critical lesson for US planners. "The Iran war will prompt U.S. adversaries to react in some pretty interesting ways," said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Those reactions will likely involve accelerating efforts to build survivable nuclear forces and developing asymmetric capabilities to counter America's conventional military superiority.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
