Ukraine offers ceasefire as Russian attacks kill 3 in Odesa

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has renewed a ceasefire offer to Russia ahead of Orthodox Easter, an offer conditioned on a halt to strikes against energy infrastructure, a proposal that comes just hours after a Russian attack on Odesa killed three people.

"If Russia is ready to stop strikes on our energy infrastructure, we will respond in kind," Zelenskyy said in remarks on Monday, noting the proposal was passed to Moscow via American channels. "We have repeatedly proposed to Russia a ceasefire at least for Easter. But for them, all times are the same. Nothing is sacred.”

The fragile offer of a truce is set against a backdrop of continued violence. An overnight attack on the Black Sea port of Odesa killed three people and left at least 16 injured. Meanwhile, Ukraine conducted its own drone attack on an oil shipping terminal in the Russian port of Novorossiysk, according to the Ukrainian army. The Russian defence ministry claimed a different terminal was hit, but the port handles about 1% of global oil supplies and 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports.

A potential ceasefire, even a temporary one for the holiday observed in both nations on April 13, represents a significant potential de-escalation. A halt in hostilities could lower global risk sentiment, ease pressure on commodity prices like oil and wheat that have been volatile throughout the conflict, and provide a boost to European and global equity markets.

Escalating Attacks

The tit-for-tat strikes on critical energy infrastructure have defined a new phase of the war, now in its third year. Ukraine's attack on the Novorossiysk oil terminal is part of a broader strategy to disrupt Russia's energy exports, which are a crucial source of funding for its war effort. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which uses the terminal, is a key artery for global energy, highlighting the international stakes of the regional conflict.

Russia, for its part, has relentlessly targeted Ukraine's power grid and other critical infrastructure. Zelenskyy's offer to reciprocate a halt in these attacks is a direct attempt to de-escalate this specific front of the war, which has caused significant civilian hardship and economic damage.

Global Ripples and Internal Purges

The war's impact continues to be felt globally and within Russia itself. In Australia, a 25-year-old army reservist was charged for allegedly working as a drone operator for Ukraine, the first such charge under Australian law, carrying a potential 20-year prison sentence. This highlights the legal complexities for foreign nationals joining the conflict.

Internally, the Kremlin is cracking down on officials perceived as failing in the war effort. A former governor of the Kursk border region, Alexei Smirnov, was sentenced to 14 years in prison for alleged kickbacks related to building fortifications. This follows the death by alleged suicide of his predecessor, Roman Starovoyt, after Ukraine's army broke through the border in 2024, a major embarrassment for President Vladimir Putin.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.