UAE Exits OPEC After 59 Years in a Break From Managed Scarcity

The United Arab Emirates formally left OPEC on May 1 after 59 years, a move that weakens the cartel's control over global supply and signals a strategic shift by one of the world's top three oil exporters to prioritize production volume over managed scarcity.

"The UAE is preparing for a world where oil demand is in decline, and OPEC's power to maintain control and discipline will be weaker," Kingsmill Bond, an energy strategist at the think tank Ember Future, told Al Jazeera.

The departure frees the UAE from an OPEC quota of 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd), allowing it to utilize its full capacity of nearly 4.85 million bpd and target 5 million bpd by 2027. The move comes as OPEC's share of global crude production has fallen from over 50 percent in 1973 to 36.7 percent in 2025, with non-OPEC producers like the U.S. increasing their market share.

While immediate price impacts are muted by geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE's exit introduces a structurally bearish long-term supply increase. This challenges Saudi Arabia's strategy of production cuts to keep prices high and may force a new era of competition among oil producers as the global energy transition accelerates.

A Strategy for Peak Demand

Behind the diplomatic language of national interest lies a clear-eyed calculation: the era of ever-growing oil demand is ending. The UAE's state-owned oil company, Adnoc, is accelerating its growth with projects worth $55 billion between 2026 and 2028, a clear sign it intends to monetize its reserves now. This contrasts sharply with the core OPEC strategy, led by Saudi Arabia, of managing scarcity to support prices.

"They are clearly preparing for the period after the war, because now that we have reached peak oil demand and we are entering a new environment—they want to be free from the constraints of OPEC," Bond said. The UAE's frustration with production quotas that cap its output well below capacity has been a long-standing issue. For the Emirates Policy Centre's president, Ebtesam Al Ketbi, the OPEC exit marks a transition from "collective quota-based commitments to sovereign flexibility in managing production."

This pivot is not just about oil. Abu Dhabi has completed the Barakah Nuclear Plant, which supplies about a quarter of its domestic electricity, and its renewable energy company Masdar is a major investor in global clean energy projects. This represents a coherent transition policy: aggressively monetize hydrocarbons today to fund the infrastructure of tomorrow.

Geopolitics and Market Realities

The immediate market reaction to the UAE's exit has been overshadowed by the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which has constrained tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. With supply routes restricted, WTI crude has remained elevated, coiling within a triangle pattern on technical charts rather than breaking out. "Geopolitics—not OPEC policy—is still in the driver’s seat," wrote Zorrays Junaid of Alchemy Markets.

However, analysts see a clear bearish shift in the medium term. "Less coordination typically means more competition—and more oil hitting the market," Junaid added. The departure of a founding-era major producer is a significant blow to the cartel's prestige and price-setting power. "Opec will continue, but with materially less ability to set prices," said Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of the Swiss private bank Syz Group.

In its first meeting since the UAE's departure, the remaining OPEC+ members, including Russia, agreed to a modest production increase of 188,000 barrels per day from June to "support oil market stability." Yet, the loss of the UAE's nearly 5 million bpd of capacity from the group's coordinated efforts fundamentally alters the supply landscape for the long term.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.