Trump's 38% approval forces GOP to run against socialism in midterms

President Trump's approval rating has fallen to 38 percent, a new second-term low, forcing Republican candidates to shift their midterm strategy from defending his record to attacking the Democratic Party's progressive flank.

"Rather than fight voter sentiment about the president, many Republican candidates are happy to focus on the fringe views of their opponents and their party," Jason L. Riley, opinion columnist at The Wall Street Journal, wrote in an Aug. 12 column.

The New York Times polling average shows Trump at 38 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval as of Aug. 3. Quinnipiac University recorded an all-time low of 32 percent on July 29, while Reuters/Ipsos put the figure at 35 percent on Aug. 3. His net approval on inflation stands at negative 43, the lowest of his term, according to The Economist's tracker. Fox News polls show Democrats leading Republicans by 9 points on economic stewardship in July, a reversal from the GOP's 15-point advantage in 2022-2023.

With midterms less than three months out, the GOP's ability to frame November as a choice between parties — rather than a referendum on Trump — hinges on whether progressive nominees like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Francesca Hong in Wisconsin can be painted as too far left for general election voters. The outcome will determine control of the House and Senate for the final two years of Trump's term.

Trump began his second term in January 2025 with 49 percent approval, according to Emerson College Polling. The steady decline over 18 months has been driven primarily by economic dissatisfaction. Inflation and cost of living are the top concerns for voters, and Trump's handling of these issues faces particular criticism. A Marquette Law School poll from August found that inflation and cost of living were the most important issues for voters, with Trump's economic approval at 31 percent in an April SSRS survey.

The Iran war has compounded the problem. A May Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 61 percent of respondents disapproved of the war, a jump of 18 percentage points from earlier polling. Gas prices rose as a result, adding to the cost-of-living squeeze. Rural voters, traditionally a Trump stronghold, have also shifted — approval among rural Americans dropped to 50 percent by July 2026, down from 60 percent in February 2025.

Progressive Surge Complicates Democratic Message

The Democratic Party's progressive wing has been on a winning streak this cycle. Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's Senate primary on Aug. 7, despite calling for single-payer healthcare, free college tuition, and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. In Wisconsin, democratic socialist Francesca Hong leads the governor's primary with 33 percent support, well ahead of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley's 12 percent, according to Decision Desk HQ.

El-Sayed performed well among highly educated white voters but struggled with working-class and Black voters — a potential liability in a battleground state with significant blue-collar and minority populations. "He is a serious person. She is a font of zany liberal, faculty lounge exotica," former Obama strategist David Axelrod said of the contrast between El-Sayed and Hong.

In Minnesota, progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan narrowly leads moderate Rep. Angie Craig 42 percent to 38 percent in the Democratic Senate primary, according to DDHQ polling averages, though Craig has outraised Flanagan roughly 2-to-1.

What's at Stake

The last time a president's approval rating was this low at a comparable point in his term, Democrats swept the 2018 midterms, flipping 40 House seats. Trump's 38 percent is modestly below Biden's 37 percent at a similar stage, according to Pew Research Center analysis from Aug. 6. The comparison shows how unusual Trump's second-term trajectory has been — moving from an initial post-election bump to sustained weakness.

For Republicans, the strategy is clear: make the election about the Democratic Party's socialist wing rather than Trump's record. For Democrats, the challenge is keeping the focus on Trump's unpopularity while their party's left flank continues to win primaries. With control of both chambers at stake, the next 80 days will determine whether voters revile Trump more than they fear socialism.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.