Trump warns Iran over Hormuz toll, risking 21% of world oil

A warning from U.S. President Trump on April 9 against Iran imposing tolls on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has put markets on edge, threatening the passage for over 21 million barrels of oil per day.

"This kind of direct, public warning creates significant uncertainty, as any miscalculation could have an immediate and severe impact on energy prices," said a senior analyst at the Energy Policy Research Foundation. "The market is now pricing in a higher risk premium."

The news sent a ripple through global markets, with Brent crude futures jumping 3.5 percent to over $92 per barrel. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) climbed 15 percent to 18.5, and gold prices rose 1.2 percent as investors sought safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also strengthened.

At stake is the stability of a waterway that handles approximately 21 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption. Any disruption, whether through military action or the imposition of passage fees that reroute traffic, could lead to a severe energy supply shock and push global economies toward recession.

The situation is reminiscent of the 2019-2020 tensions when several oil tankers were attacked or seized in the gulf, causing a temporary but sharp spike in oil prices. While direct military confrontation was avoided then, the current rhetoric from a potential U.S. presidential candidate introduces a new layer of political risk for oil markets and shippers who have already been contending with Red Sea disruptions.

Market participants will be closely watching for any official response from Tehran or further escalatory language. The warning could pressure shipping and insurance companies to raise rates for transit through the strait, adding to global inflationary pressures even without a direct military incident. The next few days are critical for determining whether this is a temporary war of words or the beginning of a more serious crisis.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.