Key Takeaways:
President Trump ordered Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Syria and Lebanon during a phone call last Thursday, Axios reported, as the 2026 Iran war ceasefire shows signs of unraveling.
The demand from Washington comes roughly 4 1/2 months after the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, a conflict that drew Israeli forces into southern Syria and parts of Lebanon. The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, but that ceasefire now appears on the verge of collapse, according to people familiar with the talks.
"The withdrawal demand reflects a strategic calculation in Washington that Israel's two-front deployment is complicating ceasefire negotiations," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. "Removing that friction point could be a prerequisite for extending the truce."
Israeli troops entered southern Syria after the fall of the Assad regime and have maintained a presence in contested areas of southern Lebanon. The pullback ordered by Trump would affect both theaters simultaneously, a move that could reshape the security landscape across the Levant.
The phone call — the first publicly reported direct conversation between the two leaders since the ceasefire was signed — highlights growing friction between Washington and Jerusalem over the pace of de-escalation. Netanyahu's government has argued that a continued military presence in buffer zones is necessary to prevent Iranian-backed militias from regrouping near Israel's borders.
Brent crude oil traded near $82 a barrel on Monday, down from intraday highs above $87 reached during the initial weeks of the conflict, as traders priced in a potential de-escalation. Gold held above $2,350 an ounce, reflecting lingering safe-haven demand. The shekel strengthened 0.4% against the dollar on the news, while Tel Aviv's TA-35 index rose 1.2%.
The NATO summit in Ankara last week, where Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, added a layer of alliance diplomacy to the withdrawal push. Turkey has been repositioning its strategy in Lebanon after Assad's fall, linking its own stability to the country's future, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.
For Israel, a withdrawal carries domestic political risk. Netanyahu's coalition includes hardline factions that have opposed any territorial concessions in Syria and Lebanon. The prime minister has not publicly responded to Trump's demand, and his office declined to comment on the phone call.
The broader risk is that a premature withdrawal could create a security vacuum. The last time Israel withdrew unilaterally from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah quickly filled the void, leading to the 2006 war. A similar dynamic in Syria could allow Iranian-aligned militias to reestablish a foothold near the Golan Heights.
The coming weeks will determine whether the ceasefire holds or the region slides back into open conflict. If Israel complies with the withdrawal demand, the US may push for a broader agreement that includes Iranian commitments to curb militia activity in both countries. If not, the fragile truce could collapse, drawing the US and Israel back into a wider war.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
