Trump Says Iran Deal ‘Very Likely’ Before April 7 Deadline

US President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran is “very likely” before an April 7 deadline he imposed, even as his administration threatens severe military action if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. The statement, made on April 5, introduces fresh uncertainty for global energy markets, with oil prices hanging on the outcome of last-minute negotiations.

“The will of the Iranian people is to continue an effective defense of the homeland, and the strategic leverage of the Hormuz blockade must also continue to be applied,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said in a social media post on April 5.

The standoff directly threatens the passage of roughly 21 percent of the world's daily oil consumption through the strait. A failure to secure a deal could see Trump make good on threats to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants, which would halt crude exports and likely send prices surging. Brent crude futures have been volatile on the escalating rhetoric.

With the deadline extended to 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7, the situation presents a binary risk for markets. A successful negotiation could unwind the risk premium currently priced into oil and support equities, while a failure could trigger a military conflict, a shutdown of the strait, and a flight to safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar.

Diplomatic Backchannels and Public Threats

According to media reports citing sources familiar with the matter, negotiations are proceeding along two tracks. One channel involves mediation by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. A second, more direct channel is reportedly between Trump’s special envoy, Wittkow, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. Trump confirmed his advisors were in “intensive negotiations” with Tehran.

This diplomatic push runs parallel to a stream of threats from the White House. Trump told reporters that if a deal isn't reached, he is considering “bombing everything and seizing [Iran’s] oil.” He followed up on social media, warning that April 7 would be “power plant day and bridge day” in Iran.

Iran's Hardline Stance

Tehran has responded with its own defiant posture. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy stated on April 5 that it is preparing to establish a “new order” in the Persian Gulf and that the Strait of Hormuz “will never return to the way it was,” particularly for the US and Israel.

Adding a specific condition, Iran's Deputy Director for Press and Communication, Mehdi Tabatabai, stated the strait would only fully reopen after a new legal regime is established to compensate Iran for all past war damages using revenue from transit taxes on passing ships. This hardline demand complicates the path to a simple de-escalation.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.