Trump halts 2nd Iran strike as Oman deal talks advance

President Donald Trump ordered the US military not to strike Iran on Friday as Oman and Tehran advanced toward a potential weekend agreement, the second time in two weeks the president pulled back from a planned assault.

The directive, reported by Axios and confirmed by regional sources, followed Trump's earlier instruction to Central Command to "open the gates of hell" after two US service members were killed in Jordan on July 17. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the troops' sacrifice "only stiffens our resolve."

The reversal mirrors Trump's decision on Monday to call off a strike planned for Tuesday at the request of Gulf allies including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. At that time, Trump said "serious negotiations" were underway and instructed the military "to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice."

The repeated pullbacks risk eroding US credibility with both adversaries and allies. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said this week that America's "repeated breaches" of the earlier ceasefire had shown that the "signature of the US president is utterly worthless and devoid of credibility."

Oil Markets Face Whiplash

The on-again, off-again military posture has injected uncertainty into oil markets that were already pricing in a significant war risk premium. US gasoline prices have pushed back above $4 a gallon as concerns over supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz persist. The waterway handles about 21% of global oil trade, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Brent crude has swung sharply on each escalation and de-escalation signal. The prospect of a diplomatic resolution could remove a portion of the risk premium embedded in crude prices, though traders remain skeptical given the pattern of broken ceasefires.

The last time Washington and Tehran reached a ceasefire in mid-April, it unraveled within weeks as both sides accused each other of violations. That agreement collapsed after Iran launched attacks that killed two US service members in Jordan, triggering Trump's "open the gates of hell" order and a new round of US airstrikes.

Deal Parameters Remain Unclear

The potential Oman-brokered deal would need to address both the immediate crisis over the Strait of Hormuz and the broader nuclear question, according to Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Much of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile was buried under collapsed tunnels following US-Israeli strikes in June, Fidan said, reducing the immediate proliferation threat.

"Iran is not opposed in principle to complying with nuclear conditions," Fidan said Monday. "The question is what will be given in return, in what order, and under what conditions."

Trump dismissed Iran's latest proposal as "garbage" last week, and the two sides remain far apart on core issues. Iran's foreign minister said Friday that a lack of trust was the biggest impediment to negotiations.

What's at Stake

A successful deal would ease pressure on global energy markets and reduce the risk of a broader regional war that could draw in Gulf states and disrupt shipping through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Together, those chokepoints handle roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Failure to reach an agreement could trigger the large-scale assault Trump has repeatedly threatened. The president said Monday he instructed the military "to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.