Key Takeaways:
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares fell for an eighth straight week after JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated a $145 price target, implying 60 percent downside.
"We continue to see a fundamental disconnect between Tesla’s share price and its underlying automotive performance, which is now facing material headwinds from record-high inventory and waning demand," Brinkman said in a note published Friday. The analyst argues the stock is being propped up by "robotaxi vaporware."
The bank maintained its "Underweight" rating on the electric vehicle maker. The call follows a disastrous first quarter where Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles but only delivered 358,023, leaving a surplus of over 50,000 units.
Tesla stock has lost nearly 25 percent of its value year-to-date. The sell-off has wiped out billions in market capitalization as the company's days of supply in inventory has swelled from just 10 to over 30.
The inventory glut is the widest in the company's history, bringing its total unsold global stock to a record 164,000 units. The situation has been worsened by the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in late 2025, which has significantly cooled demand in the U.S. market.
While Tesla struggles, competitors are gaining ground. BYD Co. Ltd. (OTC: BYDDY) nearly doubled Tesla’s sales output in the first quarter, leveraging its lineup of plug-in hybrids to capture the mainstream market. In the premium segment, Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: RIVN) new $45,000 R2 SUV is positioned as a direct competitor to Tesla's aging Model Y.
Not all analysts share JPMorgan's deep pessimism. Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco holds a "Hold" rating with a $415 price target, noting that Tesla has logged nearly 10 billion miles on its Full Self-Driving software. He believes a substantive update on the company's robotaxi plans, expected in August, could provide a path to justifying the stock's valuation.
The reiterated price target puts Tesla's valuation at a critical crossroads ahead of its August robotaxi event. A failure to demonstrate a clear path to commercializing autonomous driving could force investors to value Tesla more like a traditional automaker, validating JPMorgan's bearish thesis. The next major catalyst will be the Q1 earnings report on April 22.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
