Tesla delivery estimates diverge as Q2 consensus hits 401,120

Analysts project Tesla will deliver 401,120 vehicles in the second quarter, a 4% increase from a year ago, as estimates diverge across Wall Street.

"Mixed recent signals on EV demand in China and the US as purchase incentives end" drove the cut, Rajat Gupta, analyst at JPMorgan, said. He lowered his estimate to 420,000 from 430,500, though the revised figure remains well above the consensus view.

RBC Capital's Tom Narayan expects 405,000 deliveries, slightly above consensus, while Baird's Ben Kallo forecasts 392,900. The range spans more than 27,000 units, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the early July release. European registrations more than doubled in May from a year earlier, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. Tesla's record of 497,099 deliveries came in the third quarter of 2025, when buyers rushed to beat the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.

Tesla shares fell 5.8% to $381.61 on Tuesday and are down 12% in June, partly as investor attention shifts from vehicle sales to AI opportunities and a potential merger with SpaceX. Baird's Kallo said a business combination is "likely to happen sooner rather than later," predicting a deal within 18 months after SpaceX integrates its recent xAI merger and settles as a public company.

SpaceX Merger Speculation Grows

The SpaceX IPO on June 12 redirected investor focus. Baird's Kallo sees "clear and compelling" strategic rationale for combining the two companies, citing greater scale and limited market overlap that could reduce regulatory scrutiny. A merger would bring Musk's electric-vehicle and space ventures under one umbrella, creating a combined entity valued at more than $1 trillion based on current market capitalizations.

The delivery report in early July will test whether Tesla's core auto business can sustain growth while investor priorities shift. A miss could amplify pressure on the stock, which is already trading near its lowest level since before the SpaceX debut. A beat may refocus attention on the company's EV fundamentals before any potential SpaceX deal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.