Key Takeaways
Ned Davis Research’s chief macro strategist Joe Kalish intends to buy 10-year U.S. Treasuries if the benchmark yield exceeds 4.5 percent, viewing it as a peak for 2026.
“I am still interested in buying bonds at the right price,” Kalish wrote in a note on Thursday, indicating a plan to increase his allocation from an underweight position.
The 10-year Treasury yield held steady around 4.353 percent on Monday after ending Friday at 4.344 percent. Kalish’s model estimates fair value for the note’s yield is 3.74 percent, well below current levels. His strategy is to buy when the yield pushes above 4.5 percent, a level nearly reached on Friday when it hit 4.386 percent.
The call comes as bond markets remain volatile, caught between haven demand from the ongoing Iran war and selling pressure from a stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market.
Kalish’s rationale looks past the immediate geopolitical noise toward longer-term risks that he believes will drive capital into government bonds. “We will still be left with AI disruption and questionable valuations, problems in private credit, and worries about Fed [Federal Reserve] independence,” he wrote. The strategist argues that bonds are “the only market large enough to handle any asset reallocation” from overpriced equities or troubled private credit markets.
This bullish view on Treasuries is shared by other analysts. Morgan Stanley told investors to buy U.S. debt expiring in five years in a March 27 note. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global, also wrote last week that the 10-year yield should be lower, predicting a move to 3.9 percent.
The strategist’s call provides a clear entry point for investors waiting to add duration. A move above 4.5 percent on the 10-year note would signal a key technical and psychological level, and a successful execution of this strategy by many could put downward pressure on Treasury yields. Investors will watch this week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures index for new signs of inflation.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
