Twenty-five commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, the highest single-day count since mid-April, signaling a tentative normalization of the world's most critical oil chokepoint.
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Strait of Hormuz traffic hits 25 vessels in highest count since April
Twenty-five commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, the busiest day since mid-April, as shipowners cautiously tested the reopening of a waterway that handles about 20 percent of global oil production, AXS Marine data show.
"The traffic surge reflects cautious optimism that both sides will honor the interim agreement, but shipowners are still erring on the side of safety given the unresolved question of who ultimately controls the strait," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen.
The June 18 tally of 25 vessels — including oil tankers, liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and cargo ships — marked a sharp increase from the near-zero traffic levels during the conflict. At least seven vessels crossed on Thursday alone, according to Marine Traffic data, while Lloyd's List Intelligence confirmed that major shipowners had begun moving vessels through the waterway. However, traffic thinned on Friday morning, with no tankers observed moving outbound from the Persian Gulf, though one very large crude carrier re-appeared off the Omani capital Muscat, suggesting it had completed a transit.
The surge follows the June 17 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which stipulates that commercial traffic "will immediately start" and gives Washington until July 19 to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran is expected to make its "best efforts" to restore traffic to pre-war levels over the same period. Left unaddressed in the agreement is whether Iran will ultimately retain control over the strait — ships will travel toll-free for 60 days only while Tehran and its Gulf neighbors negotiate a new arrangement.
80 Million Barrels Await Passage
Supertankers laden with almost 80 million barrels of oil are sitting in the Persian Gulf and ready to cross at a moment's notice, data from Vortexa compiled by Bloomberg show. The non-sanctioned crude from Persian Gulf producers excluding Iran is on 40 very large crude carriers in the gulf. Last year, about 15 million barrels a day of oil from the region was delivered to Asia. If smaller tankers are added to the tally, the volume of crude awaiting passage is likely higher.
The reopening carries significant implications for global energy markets. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly 21 percent of global oil consumption, making it the world's most important energy chokepoint. The last time a similar disruption occurred — during the 2019 tanker attacks and the 2020 escalation — oil prices spiked as much as 15 percent within days while shipping insurance premiums tripled. This time, Brent crude has remained relatively subdued as traders price in a gradual normalization, though the thin traffic on Friday suggests full recovery remains weeks away.
The next key date is July 19, when the US naval blockade is scheduled to be fully lifted. If Iran and its Gulf neighbors fail to reach a new strait governance arrangement within the 60-day toll-free window, shipping could face renewed uncertainty. For now, the data points in one direction: 25 vessels on June 18 is more than zero, but it is still far below the pre-war average of roughly 100 vessels per day.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Strait of Hormuz commercial vessel traffic on the 18th reached the highest level since mid-April[2] Hormuz Traffic Thins Friday as Shipowners Err on Side of Safety[3] Tracking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in live maps and charts[4] Stranded ships have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz, maritime data company says[5] Supertankers With 80 Million Barrels of Oil Ready to Pass Hormuz
