Key Takeaways:
- Standard Chartered declared Bitcoin's $59,375 low as the cycle bottom
- The bank reaffirmed its $100,000 year-end target for Bitcoin
- Three confirmation signals: ETF inflows, Strategy buying, and oil prices
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Standard Chartered calls Bitcoin bottom at $59K, sets $100K target
Standard Chartered declared Bitcoin's cycle bottom at $59,375, reaffirming a $100,000 year-end target as the crypto market emerges from an eight-month downturn that erased more than half the asset's value.
"Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a June 12 note to clients.
Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $59,375 on June 5 before recovering above $65,000 by mid-June, according to CoinGecko data. The 53% drawdown from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 ranks as one of the most punishing stretches in recent history. Kendrick's call is the latest in a series of revisions — from an initial $300,000 target in mid-2025 to $150,000 in December, then $100,000 in February.
The bottom call is not universal. Galaxy Research projects a deeper floor between $40,000 and $46,000 in the second half of 2026, while BIT Research targets $50,000 to $55,000 during the FIFA World Cup window. Whether $59,000 holds depends on three signals Kendrick identified: a sustained return to positive Bitcoin ETF inflows, renewed buying from Strategy, and falling oil prices tied to a potential US-Iran peace deal.
The $4.4 Billion ETF Outflow Streak That Shook Confidence
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a historic 13-day outflow streak from May 15 to June 3, shedding $4.4 billion and roughly 59,400 BTC, according to Galaxy Research. BlackRock's IBIT led the exodus with $1.34 billion lost in a single week. The selling represented the longest and largest capital exit since these funds launched in January 2024.
Kendrick attributed part of the outflow pressure to the SpaceX IPO, which raised $75 billion on June 12 at a $1.77 trillion valuation. Many ETF investors sold positions to free up capital for the offering, he argued. With the IPO complete and SPCX shares trading, that selling pressure is expected to ease.
A tiny net inflow of $3.05 million on June 5 ended the outflow streak, but Kendrick needs to see stabilization accelerate before calling the recovery confirmed.
BoJ Rate Hike Adds a New Macro Headwind
The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% on June 16, the highest level since 1995, adding a fresh macro challenge to the recovery thesis. Bitcoin dropped 2.5% from its local high at $67,250 following the decision.
Historically, Bitcoin has averaged a 5.74% decline in the 30 days after the last four BoJ rate hikes, according to TradingView data. A repeat of that pattern would put Bitcoin's downside range between $62,700 and $56,700. André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, noted that BoJ hiking cycles have historically coincided with US recessions, as Japan often tightens policy late in the global cycle when liquidity conditions are already becoming less supportive for risk assets.
Bitcoin traded near $65,700 as of June 15, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remaining deep in "Extreme Fear" territory. The key support level sits at $62,000, while resistance stands at $70,000 to $72,000, where the May breakdown began.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] 'Winter Is Over': Standard Chartered Calls Crypto Bottom as Bitcoin Recovers From $60K Fall[2] Standard Chartered Bitcoin Prediction: Bank Declares $59K Cycle Bottom and Reaffirms $100K Target[3] Uniswap price forecast: Standard Chartered sets $100 target, but there is a caveat[4] You Will Not Like Where Google Gemini AI Predicts Bitcoin Price Going in 2026[5] Bitcoin sell-off toward $60K may resume as Japan hikes interest rates
