Traders are pricing in a sharp swing in SpaceX shares next week, with options implied volatility reaching levels typically seen in the most speculative AI names.
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SpaceX options see $400 million in trades, implied volatility at 135
SpaceX options surged to the third most actively traded single-stock contracts in their debut session Tuesday, with over $400 million in premium changing hands within 30 minutes and more than 300,000 contracts traded.
"After they settle in and become liquid, the option volume could surpass TSLA and NVDA as the most active equity," Tom Sosnoff, co-founder of ThinkOrSwim and TastyTrade, said.
Calls outpaced puts by more than 2 to 1, with over $300 million of the total premium tied to call options, SpotGamma data show. The 220-strike call expiring Thursday was the most popular contract, accounting for more than $22 million in premium alone. Implied volatility stood at 135, reflecting expectations of sharp price swings in a company valued above $2 trillion.
The options launch gives traders a direct way to express views on a stock that has rallied 16 percent on its first day of trading after a $2 trillion IPO. SpaceX is the only publicly traded company with a market cap exceeding $1 trillion that is unprofitable, recording a net loss of $4.28 billion in its latest quarter and $4.94 billion in 2025.
Heavy Call Volume Signals Bullish Positioning
The call-skewed flow suggests traders are positioning for further upside in the near term, with heavy volume concentrated in strikes expiring this week. SpaceX shares closed near $192 on Wednesday, according to Arete Research, after listing at $135. The company has about 13 billion shares outstanding.
Analyst price targets vary widely. Arete Research set a $401 target for end-2027, implying a market cap above $5.2 trillion that would surpass Nvidia as the world's most valuable company. Oppenheimer assigned a $250 target over 12 to 18 months, while Stephens targets $296.
Implied Volatility Puts SpaceX in Rarefied Air
Implied volatility of 135 puts SpaceX options in territory typically occupied by high-growth AI and semiconductor names. Mike Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, said the dynamic mirrors what's been seen in AI stocks. "There's a huge bid in upside calls for anything AI-related and that means the price for protection is higher too," he said.
The retail-heavy options flow echoes the pattern seen in Tesla after zero-commission trading took off in late 2019, according to Paul Rowady, founder of Alphacution. "Robinhood sort of created Elon Musk," Rowady said, referring to the hockey-stick growth in Tesla's options volume that followed the shift to commission-free trading.
SpaceX's path to profitability depends on Starship reusability, Starlink expansion and space-based data centers — catalysts that could take years to materialize. The company generated revenue of more than $18.5 billion in 2025, with Arete projecting a compound growth rate of 63 percent into 2030 driven by Starlink and AI infrastructure.
For now, the options market offers the clearest signal of how traders are pricing those long-term bets against near-term volatility. With implied volatility at 135, the options market is pricing in expectations of significant price movement in the days and weeks ahead — a bet that has already attracted more than $400 million in premium on day one.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Here's How Much Traders Expect SpaceX Stock to Move Next Week[2] 'Godfather' of options sees SpaceX surpassing Nvidia, Tesla as early trades come in - CNBC[3] SpaceX options list on Tuesday. Here's what to watch - CNBC[4] Here are the odds of SpaceX becoming the world's most valuable company[5] SpaceX shares to more than double to above $400, research firm predicts
