Key Takeaways:
SpaceX reports its first quarterly results as a public company Tuesday, with analysts expecting revenue up 68% to $6.85 billion on surging AI income.
"Wall Street analysts will focus on the hard numbers, but retail investors will be influenced by some of the sound bites," Jay Ritter, an IPO expert and professor at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business, said.
Analysts expect the loss to widen to 19 cents a share from 10 cents a year earlier, with AI revenue jumping 175% to more than $2 billion as SpaceX begins renting data center capacity to Alphabet, Anthropic and Reflection AI. Those deals are expected to generate $28 billion in annual revenue, more than 60% of the AI unit's estimated 2027 sales.
The report lands as the stock trades near $115, roughly half its all-time high, and two days before a lockup expiration that frees 912 million shares, or 7% of the company, potentially more than doubling the tradable float.
SpaceX sold shares for $135 in the largest initial public offering on record in June, then surged past $225 before sliding below its offer price and touching a low of $107 last week. The stock has lost more than $500 billion in market value since its first trade, coming off four straight weekly losses.
Much of the $1.4 trillion valuation rests on the AI business, which the company says accounts for 93% of its $28.5 trillion market opportunity. Morgan Stanley analysts assigned little or negative value to the AI unit given high capital spending requirements and "largely uncertain economics," warning shares could fall if full-year capital expenditure guidance tops Wall Street's $50 billion estimate.
The lockup expiration is the bigger near-term test. HSBC estimates another 26% of shares will hit markets by the end of the year, a supply wave that could outstrip demand. Short sellers have built up about $8.3 billion in paper profits since the IPO, according to S3 Partners, though some are expected to turn buyers this week and absorb the new supply.
Analysts remain broadly bullish. New Street Research, Bernstein and Cantor Fitzgerald carry price targets of $165, $239 and $246 respectively, while the mean target tracked by Visible Alpha implies the shares should more than double. Deutsche Bank analysts said the stock can "stabilize" once the lockups pass.
The results are unlikely to move shares as much as executives' comments on the earnings call, according to Morgan Stanley, with investors focused on plans for the $60 billion Cursor acquisition and the Grok chatbot. The report also triggers the first opportunity for insiders and pre-IPO investors to sell, and comes as speculation builds over a possible merger with Tesla.
For holders, the earnings call offers the clearest signal yet on whether SpaceX's AI spending is translating into revenue. The next test is Thursday's lockup expiration, when the float more than doubles and the market gauges demand for the newly tradable shares.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
