SpaceX derivatives hint at 35% first-day surge in market debut

Derivatives tied to SpaceX's initial public offering are pricing a first-day surge of as much as 50%, signaling that retail and institutional demand for Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company could push its market value past $2.4 trillion.

"SpaceX is the most anticipated listing in a generation, and the derivative pricing reflects genuine demand rather than speculative froth," said Tom Brennan, an IPO and M&A analyst at Edgen. "But a 35% to 50% first-day pop would put it in rarefied air — only a handful of companies have sustained those levels post-listing."

IG International's derivatives in Singapore on Friday pointed to an implied market capitalization of $2.4 trillion, roughly 35% above the IPO price of $135 per share and the $1.77 trillion valuation at listing. On Polymarket, traders assigned an 84% probability that SpaceX closes above $1.8 trillion and a 69% chance it surpasses $2 trillion. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid were trading near $162, implying a 20% gain, though those contracts have declined from peaks above $220 reached shortly after their May launch.

SpaceX is set to begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX after raising $75 billion in the largest IPO in U.S. history. The company set aside roughly 30% of shares — about $22.5 billion — for retail investors, far above the typical 5% to 10% allocation. The offering is reportedly four times oversubscribed, according to Reuters. At $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would instantly rank as the seventh-largest U.S. company by market capitalization, surpassing Tesla's $1.6 trillion valuation.

The bullish derivatives pricing stands in contrast to the company's financial disclosures. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 on revenue of $18.7 billion, with losses expected to widen as Musk pursues capital-intensive projects including orbital data centers and a Mars colony. Morningstar analysts Nicolas Owens and Suryansh Sharma value the company at $63 per share — a 53% discount to the IPO price — and assign just a 7% probability to their most optimistic "Moonshot" scenario, which assumes SpaceX successfully commercializes orbital AI infrastructure.

Musk's vision for space-based computing, unveiled in a recent SpaceX presentation, includes an "AI 1" satellite concept capable of 150 kilowatts of peak power and 120 kilowatts of sustained compute, connected through Starlink's laser-linked network. SpaceX aims to increase annual payload capacity from 2,500 tons to millions of tons, with future Starships potentially flying more than once per hour. The company's board has approved a pay package granting Musk 200 million super-voting restricted shares if he establishes a permanent Mars colony with at least 1 million residents while SpaceX reaches a $7.5 trillion valuation.

The IPO represents a watershed moment for the space and AI sectors, testing whether public markets can absorb the ambitious valuations that private investors have assigned to Musk's ventures. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said he sees an 80% chance that SpaceX and Tesla eventually merge into one company by 2027, with groundwork already in place following SpaceX's acquisition of xAI in February.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.