SpaceX could hit $5 trillion valuation on IPO day, Cramer says

SpaceX shares could surge past a $5 trillion valuation on their first day of trading, CNBC's Jim Cramer said, as the Elon Musk-led rocket company prepares for the largest initial public offering in history.

"This is the most anticipated IPO of the decade, and the demand is going to be unlike anything we've seen," Cramer said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on June 6.

SpaceX set an IPO price of $135 a share, valuing the company at roughly $1.77 trillion. The offering of 555.6 million shares aims to raise $75 billion, with underwriters holding an option for an additional 83.33 million shares worth $11.2 billion. Trading is expected to begin on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPAX.

A $5 trillion valuation would represent a near-tripling from the IPO price, a surge that would dwarf any first-day pop in market history. The prediction highlights the sharp divide among analysts over what SpaceX is worth, with estimates ranging from Morningstar's $780 billion fair value to ARK Invest's view that Starlink alone justifies a $2 trillion valuation.

The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case

ARK Invest Chief Futurist Brett Winton said Starlink's satellite broadband network is the primary driver of the company's value. The constellation currently delivers roughly 500 terabits per second of bandwidth and generates about $13 billion in annual revenue, according to ARK's analysis. With each Starship rocket capable of launching 60 terabits per second of capacity, Winton said SpaceX could scale Starlink revenue into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

"It does not surprise me that they are targeting a valuation in excess of and close to $2 trillion," Winton said on CNBC. "The AI opportunity is ginormous."

Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter, has forecast SpaceX revenue reaching $474 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025, according to the Financial Times. The investment bank projects the AI business alone will generate $322 billion in revenue by 2030.

Morningstar took a more cautious stance, assigning a fair value of $780 billion — 48 percent below the low end of the IPO valuation range. Equity analyst Nicolas Owens and equity director Suryansh Sharma wrote that SpaceX's growth opportunities, including orbital data centers for AI computing, remain "highly uncertain." Morningstar gives only a 7 percent probability to its most optimistic scenario, in which SpaceX captures 21 percent of global compute demand.

What Comes After the IPO

Morningstar advised long-term investors to wait for a better entry point after lock-up periods expire in the months following the IPO, when shares held by private investors and employees become available for sale. "Selling pressure may weigh on the shares," the analysts wrote.

Musk will retain more than 82 percent voting control after the offering, according to the IPO prospectus. The company plans to use proceeds from the offering to fund Starlink expansion, Starship development, and its AI data center initiative.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.