Solana Price Risks 15% Drop to $78 on 2 Bearish Patterns

Solana’s price fell 13.6% over the past week to trade around $84 as of May 19, after failing to break a key resistance level at $98. The rejection has triggered multiple bearish chart patterns that suggest a further correction toward the $78 support level is possible, even as the network’s fundamental picture continues to strengthen.

In a recent post on X, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a parallel channel that has contained Solana’s price for the last two months. “Solana retested the upper level of this Parallel Channel when it rallied toward the $98 mark earlier in the month,” Martinez noted. The subsequent failure to break out has sent the price back toward the middle of the range, with the current trajectory pointing toward a potential retest of the channel’s lower boundary around $78.

The parallel channel is not the only warning sign for traders. The failure at $98 also completed a potential double top pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal. This, combined with a bearish flag noted in the initial user-provided context, paints a picture of weakening short-term momentum. The immediate support zone sits between $82-$85, but a decisive break below this area would open the door to the more significant support at $78, representing a further 7% drop from current levels.

This technical weakness creates a sharp contrast with Solana’s underlying fundamental strength. The network has become a primary hub for consumer-facing crypto applications, leading the market in DeFi transaction volume and boasting 27.1 million active addresses, according to data from an industry report. This activity is attracting major payment processors, with sources indicating that Visa, PayPal, and Stripe are all actively using the Solana network for live payment infrastructure and stablecoin settlement. This level of adoption is a core part of the long-term bullish thesis.

Further bolstering the long-term outlook is the prospect of a spot Solana ETF. Bitwise has projected that such a product could see between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion in inflows in its first year. For comparison, spot Bitcoin ETFs have already accumulated over $1.1 billion in assets under management. This potential wave of institutional capital is a significant future catalyst that the market is beginning to price in, with some AI-driven price models from Gemini and Grok projecting long-term targets for SOL between $300 and $800.

For now, the market is defined by the tension between the short-term bearish chart and the long-term bullish story. The key levels are clear: a break below the $78 support would confirm the bearish patterns and could lead to a deeper correction toward the $70 structural support. Conversely, a move that reclaims the $90 level and then breaks the psychological $100 barrier would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal that the larger uptrend is ready to resume. The resolution of this range will likely determine Solana’s direction for the coming months.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.