Solana's price recovery has stalled at a $75 resistance cluster, where a TD Sequential sell signal coincides with the 200-period moving average, even as institutional ETF demand and record tokenization volumes provide a counterweight.
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Solana faces $75 hurdle as ETF demand meets technical sell signal
Solana's price recovery has stalled at a $75 resistance cluster, where a TD Sequential sell signal coincides with the 200-period moving average, even as institutional ETF demand and record tokenization volumes provide a counterweight.
Solana traded at $73.86 as of June 22, up 3.6% on the week, after a TD Sequential sell signal appeared at the $74.65 resistance trendline.
"SOL is pressing against a resistance cluster at $74.65 to $75, where the 4-hour 200 SMA sits just above the setup trendline," a technical analyst tracking the TD Sequential indicator said. "Breaking through on the first attempt is rare without a strong catalyst."
The sell signal follows an 8.4% bounce from $68.46 on June 19, when a validated TD Sequential buy signal triggered the recovery. On-chain data from DefiLlama shows Solana accounted for 95% of all tokenized stock trading last week, with $1.29 billion in volume — exceeding the total for the entire prior month. The surge was driven partly by the release of SpaceX's IPO token, SPCX. Separately, Toss Bank, the first South Korean internet-only bank, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Solana Foundation on June 19 to test cross-border stablecoin payment infrastructure on the network.
A rejection at $75 would send SOL toward $71 as the first support, with $68.46 as the extended target. A clean reclaim of $75 opens room toward $80 and, eventually, $100. The monthly chart shows SOL tracking toward its ninth consecutive red monthly candle, with the Relative Strength Index at 41.84 — the lowest monthly reading in the token's history.
ETF demand has emerged as a potential catalyst. Reports of increasing institutional inflows into Solana-focused funds suggest that demand from traditional finance could provide a floor under the price. However, active addresses on the network have fallen to about 2.55 million from a February peak of 5.5 million, according to Santiment, signaling that the recent volume spike reflects concentrated activity rather than broad network growth.
The divergence between adoption and price is sharp. Solana's total value locked stands near $5.7 billion, well below the all-time high of roughly $13 billion from September 2025, per DefiLlama. Capital committed to DeFi applications has not returned to peak-cycle levels despite strong transaction activity and revenue generation.
Market analysts remain divided on whether SOL has entered a durable bottoming phase. Crypto trader Ardi noted that SOL has already fallen about 77% to $60 from its cycle peak near $295, and an 80% to 85% decline would place the token in the $45 to $60 range — the most attractive accumulation zone. Trader Bluntz pointed to a weekly bullish divergence on the RSI following an 80% drawdown, which historically appears near market lows. Others urge caution: Trader Dyme noted that Solana spent roughly 500 days from May 2022 to October 2023 building a base before its last major recovery, suggesting a longer period of sideways trading may be needed.
The Toss Bank partnership adds a positive long-term backdrop, but the proof-of-concept stages will take quarters, not weeks, to deliver measurable on-chain volume. For now, SOL sits between a record adoption milestone and its weakest monthly momentum ever, with the $75 retest likely to determine which signal wins.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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